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Oct 13, 2026

NFL Week 6 Picks — 2026

These are our model's picks for the week, with the betting market's line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.Where we part company with the market3 games this week where we and the market disagree on the winner, not just the margin.The betting market has one team here, we have the other outright. These are the calls we are putting our name to:NO @ NYG — the market likes NO by 1.5. We have NYG by 3.5.CAR @ PHI — the market likes CAR by 3.5. We have PHI by 0.6.CHI @ ATL — the market likes CHI by 1.5. We have ATL by 1.3.Same side as the market, different magnitude:HOU @ JAX — market has 2.5, we have 7.4: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.NYJ @ NE — market has 7.5, we have 11.0: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.We are not pricing a market, we are calling winners. When we differ, that difference is the whole point of doing this.Every game this weekGameOur pickPredicted marginMarket lineSEA @ DENSEAby 1.5SEA by 2.5HOU @ JAXJAXby 7.4JAX by 2.5CHI @ ATLATLby 1.3CHI by 1.5BAL @ CLEBALby 4.9BAL by 4.5TEN @ INDINDby 5.3IND by 7NYJ @ NENEby 11.0NE by 7.5NO @ NYGNYGby 3.5NO by 1.5CAR @ PHIPHIby 0.6CAR by 3.5PIT @ TBPITby 1.3PIT by 2.5ARI @ LALAby 9.8LA by 12.5LAC @ KCKCby 7.2KC by 8.5BUF @ LVBUFby 5.7BUF by 5.5DAL @ GBGBby 2.8GB by 1.5WAS @ SFSFby 9.6SF by 7.5What changed this weekOur numbers update daily. Every time a call moved, it is logged here with the time we moved it.Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PM PDTCAR @ PHI — we still have PHI…
Oct 13, 2026

NFL Week 5 Wrap-Up — 2026

We went 8-6 on winners, 57%, with an average margin error of 11.5 points. 1 game ended in…

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Oct 12, 2026

Our Staff NFL game thoughts Monday morning after Week 5’s Sunday is over.

With terrible play, stupid penalties and a lackluster effort, the Dallas Cowboy feel at home to a winless…

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Oct 7, 2026

NFL Week 4 Wrap-Up — 2026

We went 11-5 on winners, 69%, with an average margin error of 6.4 points.Where we got it wrong5…

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Oct 6, 2026

NFL Week 5 Picks — 2026

These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we…

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Oct 5, 2026

Our Staff NFL game thoughts Monday morning after Week 4’s Sunday is over.

Thursday night saw the Cleveland browns in what was a game under control to having to win on…

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