Read these with a pinch of salt. It is early in the season, so our model is still working almost entirely from last season’s results and this week’s schedule context. That is the weakest footing it ever works from. Week 1 in particular is the hardest week of the year to call: every team is coming off an eight-month layoff, and last season’s record is the only form guide anyone has, ours included. Treat these as leans, not locks.
Our calls against the grain
3 games this week where we and the market disagree on the winner, not just the margin.
Straight disagreements — the market favours one side, our model takes the other:
- MIA @ LV — the market likes LV by 3. We have MIA by 6.0. This is our boldest call of the week.
- DEN @ KC — the market likes KC by 2.5. We have DEN by 6.0.
- BUF @ HOU — the market likes BUF by 1.5. We have HOU by 1.7.
We agree on the winner here, but not on how comfortable it is:
- NO @ DET — market has 7, we have 2.8: we think it is closer than the price says.
- CLE @ JAX — market has 8.5, we have 12.2: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.
A sportsbook has to worry about balancing its book. We only have to be right, so we say what the numbers say.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ SEA Final: SEA by 3 (we said 4.7) | SEA | by 4.7 | SEA by 3 |
| SF @ LA | LA | by 3.4 | LA by 3.5 |
| CHI @ CAR | CHI | by 2.2 | CHI by 3 |
| TB @ CIN | CIN | by 2.6 | CIN by 3.5 |
| NO @ DET | DET | by 2.8 | DET by 7 |
| BUF @ HOU | HOU | by 1.7 | BUF by 1.5 |
| BAL @ IND | BAL | by 4.0 | BAL by 3.5 |
| CLE @ JAX | JAX | by 12.2 | JAX by 8.5 |
| ATL @ PIT | PIT | by 3.7 | PIT by 5.5 |
| NYJ @ TEN | TEN | by 2.7 | TEN by 1.5 |
| ARI @ LAC | LAC | by 8.7 | LAC by 9.5 |
| MIA @ LV | MIA | by 6.0 | LV by 3 |
| GB @ MIN | MIN | by 1.9 | MIN by 1.5 |
| WAS @ PHI | PHI | by 6.5 | PHI by 5.5 |
| DAL @ NYG | DAL | by 1.0 | DAL by 3 |
| DEN @ KC | DEN | by 6.0 | KC by 2.5 |
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!