Read these with a pinch of salt. It is early in the season, so our model is still working almost entirely from last season’s results and this week’s schedule context. That is the weakest footing it ever works from. Week 1 in particular is the hardest week of the year to call: every team is coming off an eight-month layoff, and last season’s record is the only form guide anyone has, ours included. Treat these as leans, not locks.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF Final: BUF by 10 (we said 6.2) | BUF | by 6.2 | BUF by 5.5 |
| CAR @ ATL Final: CAR by 31 (we said 3.1) | ATL | by 3.1 | CAR by 2.5 |
| NO @ BAL Final: NO by 7 (we said 9.1) | BAL | by 9.1 | BAL by 8.5 |
| MIN @ CHI Final: MIN by 6 (we said 3.5) | CHI | by 3.5 | CHI by 4.5 |
| CIN @ HOU Final: CIN by 14 (we said 4.7) | HOU | by 4.7 | HOU by 3 |
| PIT @ NE Final: NE by 17 (we said 4.8) | NE | by 4.8 | NE by 4.5 |
| GB @ NYJ Final: GB by 3 (we said 2.7) | GB | by 2.7 | GB by 3.5 |
| CLE @ TB Final: CLE by 4 (we said 6.9) | TB | by 6.9 | TB by 8.5 |
| PHI @ TEN Final: PHI by 4 (we said 4.8) | PHI | by 4.8 | PHI by 7 |
| JAX @ DEN Final: DEN by 7 (we said 3.1) | JAX | by 3.1 | DEN by 2.5 |
| LV @ LAC Final: LV by 12 (we said 5.3) | LAC | by 5.3 | LAC by 6.5 |
| SEA @ ARI Final: SEA by 24 (we said 11.2) | SEA | by 11.2 | SEA by 3.5 |
| WAS @ DAL Final: DAL by 17 (we said 6.3) | DAL | by 6.3 | DAL by 3.5 |
| MIA @ SF Final: SF by 22 (we said 10.0) | SF | by 10.0 | SF by 12.5 |
| IND @ KC Final: KC by 3 (we said 2.5) | KC | by 2.5 | KC by 6 |
| NYG @ LA | LA | by 6.4 | LA by 6.5 |
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!