These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.
Where we disagree with the odds
3 games this week where we and the market disagree on the winner, not just the margin.
Here the odds and our numbers point at different teams. No hedging:
- ATL @ TB — the market likes TB by 2.5. We have ATL by 1.9.
- MIN @ DET — the market likes DET by 3. We have MIN by 0.3.
- KC @ DEN — the market likes KC by 1.5. We have DEN by 1.4.
No argument about who wins — only about by how much:
- BAL @ BUF — market has 3.5, we have 7.3: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.
Agreeing with the odds every week would make this exercise pointless. The disagreements are the reason to keep score.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ GB | GB | by 4.2 | GB by 3.5 |
| BAL @ BUF | BUF | by 7.3 | BUF by 3.5 |
| TEN @ CIN | CIN | by 9.5 | CIN by 10 |
| ARI @ DAL | DAL | by 8.9 | DAL by 6.5 |
| MIN @ DET | MIN | by 0.3 | DET by 3 |
| IND @ JAX | JAX | by 9.8 | JAX by 8.5 |
| LV @ NYJ | NYJ | by 1.2 | NYJ by 1.5 |
| CLE @ PIT | PIT | by 2.7 | PIT by 3.5 |
| ATL @ TB | ATL | by 1.9 | TB by 2.5 |
| LAC @ LA | LA | by 8.7 | LA by 6.5 |
| KC @ DEN | DEN | by 1.4 | KC by 1.5 |
| NE @ MIA | NE | by 8.2 | NE by 7.5 |
| PHI @ WAS | WAS | by 3.2 | WAS by 5.5 |
| CHI @ SEA | SEA | by 3.3 | SEA by 3 |
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!