These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.
Where we part company with the market
3 games this week where we and the market disagree on the winner, not just the margin.
The betting market has one team here, we have the other outright. These are the calls we are putting our name to:
- NO @ NYG — the market likes NO by 1.5. We have NYG by 3.5.
- CAR @ PHI — the market likes CAR by 3.5. We have PHI by 0.6.
- CHI @ ATL — the market likes CHI by 1.5. We have ATL by 1.3.
Same side as the market, different magnitude:
- HOU @ JAX — market has 2.5, we have 7.4: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.
- NYJ @ NE — market has 7.5, we have 11.0: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.
We are not pricing a market, we are calling winners. When we differ, that difference is the whole point of doing this.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | SEA | by 1.5 | SEA by 2.5 |
| HOU @ JAX | JAX | by 7.4 | JAX by 2.5 |
| CHI @ ATL | ATL | by 1.3 | CHI by 1.5 |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | by 4.9 | BAL by 4.5 |
| TEN @ IND | IND | by 5.3 | IND by 7 |
| NYJ @ NE | NE | by 11.0 | NE by 7.5 |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | by 3.5 | NO by 1.5 |
| CAR @ PHI | PHI | by 0.6 | CAR by 3.5 |
| PIT @ TB | PIT | by 1.3 | PIT by 2.5 |
| ARI @ LA | LA | by 9.8 | LA by 12.5 |
| LAC @ KC | KC | by 7.2 | KC by 8.5 |
| BUF @ LV | BUF | by 5.7 | BUF by 5.5 |
| DAL @ GB | GB | by 2.8 | GB by 1.5 |
| WAS @ SF | SF | by 9.6 | SF by 7.5 |
What changed this week
Our numbers update daily. Every time a call moved, it is logged here with the time we moved it.
Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PM PDT
- CAR @ PHI — we still have PHI by 0.6. The market moved to CAR by 1.5, leaving us 2.1 points apart.
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!