These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.
The ones we see differently
3 games this week where we and the market disagree on the winner, not just the margin.
Outright splits with the market. We are taking the other side:
- DAL @ PHI — the market likes DAL by 4.5. We have PHI by 0.7.
- NE @ CHI — the market likes CHI by 3. We have NE by 2.0.
- PIT @ NO — the market likes PIT by 3.5. We have NO by 0.3.
Same team, wider or narrower gap than the price implies:
- NYG @ HOU — market has 10.5, we have 2.9: we think it is closer than the price says.
- IND @ MIN — market has 6.5, we have 10.6: we think it is more comfortable than the price says.
These are the calls worth judging us on. Check back Sunday night.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHI | NE | by 2.0 | CHI by 3 |
| PIT @ NO | NO | by 0.3 | PIT by 3.5 |
| SF @ ATL | SF | by 2.1 | SF by 2.5 |
| CIN @ BAL | BAL | by 3.9 | BAL by 1.5 |
| TB @ CAR | CAR | by 5.4 | CAR by 3 |
| NYG @ HOU | HOU | by 2.9 | HOU by 10.5 |
| IND @ MIN | MIN | by 10.6 | MIN by 6.5 |
| MIA @ NYJ | NYJ | by 2.2 | NYJ by 4.5 |
| CLE @ TEN | CLE | by 2.8 | CLE by 1.5 |
| DEN @ ARI | DEN | by 3.8 | DEN by 4.5 |
| GB @ DET | DET | by 4.5 | DET by 3 |
| LA @ LV | LA | by 0.6 | LA by 3.5 |
| KC @ SEA | SEA | by 4.1 | SEA by 3 |
| DAL @ PHI | PHI | by 0.7 | DAL by 4.5 |
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!