Home > , > Project TD Tuning β€” Version 13

Project TD Tuning β€” Version 13

We added weights to the model and recalibrated. The number came out at 63.8% across 7,017 games β€” same floor as last time, same 25 seasons. The model didn’t improve, but it didn’t regress either. That’s actually useful to know. Like V12, we’re showing week-by-week summaries here instead of the full game-by-game breakdown. At this scale the individual picks disappear into the noise. The per-game detail comes back when we return to a shorter run.
Weeks Run
551
Accuracy
64%
Avg Error
10.6 pts
SeasonWeekW/LAccuracyCumulative
2000112/1580%80.00%
200029/1560%70.00%
200039/1464%68.18%
200048/1457%65.52%
2000510/1471%66.67%
200069/1464%66.28%
2000712/1486%69.00%
2000811/1479%70.18%
200097/1450%67.97%
20001010/1567%67.83%
2000118/1553%66.46%
2000128/1553%65.32%
20001310/1567%65.43%
2000149/1560%65.02%
20001512/1580%66.06%
2000168/1553%65.24%
20001711/1573%65.73%
2000184/4100%66.27%
2000193/475%66.41%
2000201/250%66.28%
2000210/10%66.02%
2001110/1567%66.06%
200126/1443%64.93%
200139/1464%64.90%
2001411/1573%65.30%
2001510/1471%65.56%
200162/1315%63.66%
2001710/1471%63.97%
200189/1464%63.98%
2001911/1573%64.34%
2001109/1560%64.18%
20011111/1573%64.51%
20011211/1573%64.81%
20011312/1580%65.32%
20011411/1573%65.58%
20011512/1580%66.04%
2001168/1553%65.65%
20011710/1567%65.68%
2001183/475%65.75%
2001193/475%65.83%
2001201/250%65.76%
2001210/10%65.64%
2002111/1669%65.73%
200224/1625%64.55%
200239/1464%64.54%
200249/1464%64.53%
200258/1457%64.36%
200267/1450%64.03%
200279/1464%64.03%
200287/1450%63.72%
200297/1450%63.43%
2002107/1450%63.14%
20021113/1681%63.57%
2002128/1650%63.26%
20021313/1681%63.66%
20021413/1681%64.05%
2002159/1656%63.88%
20021610/1662%63.85%
20021713/1681%64.21%
2002182/450%64.14%
2002194/4100%64.32%
2002201/250%64.29%
2002210/10%64.20%
2003112/1675%64.42%
2003211/1669%64.50%
2003310/1471%64.62%
200348/1457%64.50%
200359/1464%64.49%
2003610/1471%64.60%
200378/1457%64.49%
2003810/1471%64.59%
200395/1436%64.15%
2003107/1450%63.94%
20031112/1675%64.13%
20031213/1681%64.41%
2003139/1656%64.28%
2003148/1650%64.05%
20031514/1688%64.42%
20031611/1669%64.49%
20031711/1669%64.55%
2003183/475%64.59%
2003192/450%64.54%
2003201/250%64.51%
2003211/1100%64.54%
2004110/1662%64.51%
200429/1656%64.39%
2004310/1471%64.48%
200448/1457%64.39%
200459/1464%64.39%
200469/1464%64.39%
200477/1450%64.21%
200488/1457%64.13%
200495/1436%63.79%
2004108/1457%63.71%
20041112/1675%63.86%
20041210/1662%63.84%
20041311/1669%63.91%
20041413/1681%64.13%
2004159/1656%64.03%
20041611/1669%64.09%
2004178/1650%63.91%
2004181/425%63.80%
2004194/4100%63.91%
2004201/250%63.88%
2004211/1100%63.91%
200519/1656%63.82%
2005210/1662%63.80%
200538/1457%63.74%
2005411/1479%63.89%
200557/1450%63.75%
2005610/1471%63.82%
200578/1457%63.76%
200589/1464%63.76%
200599/1464%63.77%
20051010/1471%63.84%
20051110/1662%63.83%
20051213/1681%64.01%
20051313/1681%64.20%
20051410/1662%64.18%
20051511/1669%64.23%
20051612/1675%64.34%
20051712/1675%64.44%
2005182/450%64.41%
2005192/450%64.37%
2005201/250%64.35%
2005211/1100%64.38%
200617/1644%64.17%
2006212/1675%64.28%
2006310/1471%64.34%
2006410/1471%64.40%
2006513/1493%64.64%
200668/1362%64.61%
200676/1346%64.47%
200688/1457%64.41%
200698/1457%64.35%
2006109/1656%64.28%
2006118/1650%64.15%
20061212/1675%64.25%
2006137/1644%64.06%
2006147/1644%63.88%
20061511/1669%63.92%
2006168/1650%63.80%
2006177/1644%63.63%
2006183/475%63.65%
2006192/450%63.62%
2006202/2100%63.66%
2006211/1100%63.68%
200718/1650%63.56%
2007210/1662%63.55%
2007314/1688%63.76%
200745/1436%63.55%
2007510/1471%63.61%
200768/1362%63.59%
2007710/1471%63.65%
2007810/1377%63.74%
200798/1457%63.69%
2007106/1443%63.55%
20071112/1675%63.64%
20071213/1681%63.78%
2007139/1656%63.72%
20071412/1675%63.80%
20071510/1662%63.79%
20071611/1669%63.83%
20071710/1662%63.82%
2007183/475%63.84%
2007192/450%63.82%
2007201/250%63.80%
2007210/10%63.77%
2008111/1669%63.81%
2008211/1573%63.88%
2008311/1669%63.91%
200847/1354%63.85%
200859/1464%63.86%
200869/1464%63.86%
2008711/1479%63.95%
2008811/1479%64.04%
200899/1464%64.04%
2008109/1464%64.05%
20081111/1669%64.08%
20081211/1669%64.11%
20081310/1662%64.10%
20081413/1681%64.22%
20081510/1662%64.21%
2008168/1650%64.11%
20081714/1688%64.27%
2008180/40%64.16%
2008191/425%64.09%
2008201/250%64.08%
2008211/1100%64.10%
2009112/1675%64.17%
200928/1650%64.08%
2009312/1675%64.15%
2009414/14100%64.35%
2009512/1486%64.47%
200969/1464%64.47%
2009710/1377%64.54%
200988/1362%64.52%
200998/1362%64.51%
2009109/1560%64.48%
20091110/1662%64.47%
20091212/1675%64.53%
20091312/1675%64.60%
20091410/1662%64.59%
2009159/1656%64.53%
20091610/1662%64.52%
2009178/1650%64.43%
2009181/425%64.37%
2009193/475%64.39%
2009202/2100%64.42%
2009210/10%64.39%
2010110/1662%64.38%
2010210/1662%64.37%
201039/1656%64.32%
201049/1464%64.32%
201058/1457%64.29%
2010610/1471%64.32%
2010710/1471%64.36%
201089/1369%64.38%
201099/1369%64.40%
2010109/1464%64.40%
20101113/1681%64.50%
2010129/1656%64.45%
20101311/1669%64.48%
20101411/1669%64.50%
2010159/1656%64.45%
2010169/1656%64.41%
20101712/1675%64.47%
2010181/425%64.41%
2010192/450%64.39%
2010201/250%64.38%
2010210/10%64.36%
2011110/1662%64.35%
2011212/1675%64.41%
2011312/1675%64.47%
2011410/1662%64.46%
201158/1362%64.44%
2011611/1385%64.53%
201176/1346%64.45%
201189/1369%64.47%
201197/1450%64.41%
2011107/1644%64.30%
20111112/1486%64.39%
20111212/1675%64.45%
20111311/1669%64.47%
20111410/1662%64.46%
2011158/1650%64.39%
2011169/1656%64.35%
20111712/1675%64.40%
2011183/475%64.41%
2011192/450%64.40%
2011201/250%64.39%
2011210/10%64.37%
2012111/1669%64.39%
2012212/1675%64.44%
201235/1631%64.28%
2012411/1573%64.32%
201258/1457%64.29%
201265/1436%64.17%
2012710/1377%64.22%
201289/1464%64.22%
201299/1464%64.22%
2012108/1457%64.19%
20121112/1486%64.28%
2012129/1656%64.24%
20121311/1669%64.26%
2012149/1656%64.22%
20121510/1662%64.21%
20121611/1669%64.24%
20121713/1681%64.31%
2012182/450%64.30%
2012193/475%64.31%
2012200/20%64.27%
2012210/10%64.25%
201319/1656%64.22%
2013211/1669%64.24%
201339/1656%64.20%
2013410/1567%64.21%
201357/1450%64.16%
201368/1553%64.11%
201378/1553%64.07%
2013810/1377%64.11%
201397/1354%64.07%
2013106/1443%63.99%
2013119/1560%63.98%
2013127/1450%63.92%
2013138/1650%63.86%
20131415/1694%63.99%
2013158/1650%63.93%
20131610/1662%63.92%
20131713/1681%64.00%
2013181/425%63.96%
2013193/475%63.97%
2013202/2100%63.99%
2013210/10%63.97%
2014110/1662%63.96%
201428/1650%63.91%
2014312/1675%63.95%
201447/1354%63.92%
2014513/1587%64.01%
2014610/1567%64.02%
201479/1560%64.00%
201487/1547%63.93%
2014910/1377%63.98%
2014109/1369%64.00%
2014116/1443%63.92%
20141212/1580%63.98%
2014138/1650%63.92%
20141411/1669%63.94%
20141511/1669%63.96%
2014168/1650%63.91%
20141712/1675%63.95%
2014183/475%63.96%
2014193/475%63.97%
2014202/2100%63.99%
2014210/10%63.98%
2015110/1662%63.97%
2015210/1662%63.96%
2015310/1662%63.96%
201549/1560%63.94%
2015512/1486%64.02%
2015611/1479%64.07%
201579/1464%64.07%
2015810/1471%64.09%
201599/1369%64.11%
2015105/1436%64.01%
2015116/1443%63.94%
2015128/1650%63.89%
2015138/1650%63.84%
20151410/1662%63.83%
20151512/1675%63.87%
2015169/1656%63.84%
20151711/1669%63.86%
2015183/475%63.87%
2015194/4100%63.91%
2015202/2100%63.92%
2015210/10%63.91%
201619/1656%63.88%
2016211/1669%63.90%
2016310/1662%63.89%
201648/1553%63.86%
201658/1457%63.84%
2016610/1567%63.85%
2016711/1573%63.88%
201688/1362%63.87%
201698/1362%63.86%
2016108/1457%63.84%
20161112/1486%63.91%
20161212/1675%63.95%
20161310/1567%63.96%
20161413/1681%64.02%
20161514/1688%64.11%
20161611/1669%64.12%
20161711/1669%64.14%
2016183/475%64.15%
2016192/450%64.14%
2016202/2100%64.15%
2016210/10%64.14%
201719/1560%64.13%
2017213/1681%64.19%
201738/1650%64.14%
2017410/1662%64.13%
2017510/1471%64.15%
201765/1436%64.07%
2017710/1567%64.07%
2017811/1385%64.13%
201797/1354%64.10%
20171011/1479%64.15%
2017118/1457%64.13%
20171211/1669%64.14%
20171314/1688%64.22%
2017147/1644%64.15%
20171510/1662%64.15%
20171613/1681%64.20%
2017179/1656%64.18%
2017182/450%64.16%
2017193/475%64.17%
2017202/2100%64.19%
2017210/10%64.18%
2018110/1662%64.17%
201829/1656%64.14%
201837/1644%64.08%
2018410/1567%64.08%
201859/1560%64.07%
2018610/1567%64.08%
201879/1464%64.08%
2018811/1479%64.12%
2018910/1377%64.16%
2018108/1457%64.14%
2018118/1362%64.13%
20181211/1573%64.16%
2018138/1650%64.11%
2018148/1650%64.07%
20181510/1662%64.06%
20181611/1669%64.08%
20181713/1681%64.13%
2018182/450%64.12%
2018194/4100%64.15%
2018200/20%64.12%
2018211/1100%64.13%
2019111/1669%64.14%
2019210/1662%64.14%
2019311/1669%64.15%
201947/1547%64.10%
201958/1553%64.07%
201965/1436%63.99%
2019710/1471%64.01%
2019812/1580%64.06%
2019912/1486%64.12%
2019106/1346%64.07%
20191110/1471%64.09%
20191210/1471%64.11%
2019139/1656%64.09%
20191411/1669%64.10%
20191510/1662%64.10%
20191610/1662%64.09%
2019178/1650%64.05%
2019181/425%64.02%
2019193/475%64.03%
2019202/2100%64.04%
2019211/1100%64.05%
2020112/1675%64.08%
2020213/1681%64.13%
202039/1656%64.11%
202047/1547%64.06%
2020510/1471%64.08%
202068/1457%64.06%
202078/1457%64.04%
202089/1464%64.05%
202099/1464%64.05%
20201010/1471%64.07%
2020119/1464%64.07%
20201211/1669%64.08%
20201310/1567%64.09%
2020149/1656%64.06%
20201511/1669%64.08%
20201611/1669%64.09%
20201713/1681%64.14%
2020183/650%64.12%
2020193/475%64.13%
2020201/250%64.13%
2020211/1100%64.13%
202117/1644%64.08%
202128/1650%64.04%
2021310/1662%64.03%
2021410/1662%64.03%
2021512/1675%64.06%
202168/1457%64.04%
2021710/1377%64.07%
202188/1553%64.04%
202197/1450%64.01%
2021106/1443%63.96%
2021119/1560%63.95%
20211212/1580%63.99%
2021137/1450%63.95%
2021149/1464%63.95%
2021159/1656%63.93%
20211611/1669%63.95%
20211712/1675%63.98%
2021185/1631%63.89%
2021194/667%63.89%
2021201/425%63.86%
2021211/250%63.86%
2021221/1100%63.87%
202218/1650%63.83%
2022212/1675%63.86%
202239/1656%63.84%
2022410/1662%63.83%
202259/1656%63.81%
202268/1457%63.80%
202279/1464%63.80%
2022810/1567%63.81%
202299/1369%63.82%
2022106/1443%63.77%
20221110/1471%63.79%
20221211/1669%63.80%
20221311/1573%63.82%
2022148/1362%63.82%
20221511/1669%63.83%
20221610/1662%63.83%
20221712/1580%63.87%
20221810/1662%63.86%
2022194/667%63.87%
2022203/475%63.87%
2022212/2100%63.89%
2022220/10%63.88%
202316/1638%63.81%
202328/1650%63.77%
2023312/1675%63.80%
2023411/1669%63.81%
202359/1464%63.81%
2023610/1567%63.82%
202374/1331%63.75%
202388/1650%63.72%
2023911/1479%63.75%
2023109/1464%63.75%
20231110/1471%63.77%
2023129/1656%63.75%
2023139/1369%63.76%
2023147/1547%63.72%
20231510/1662%63.72%
2023169/1656%63.70%
20231712/1675%63.73%
2023189/1656%63.71%
2023195/683%63.73%
2023203/475%63.73%
2023211/250%63.73%
2023220/10%63.72%
2024111/1669%63.73%
202426/1638%63.67%
2024310/1662%63.66%
202448/1650%63.63%
202457/1450%63.60%
2024610/1471%63.62%
2024712/1580%63.66%
2024812/1675%63.68%
2024911/1573%63.71%
2024109/1464%63.71%
2024119/1464%63.71%
2024129/1369%63.72%
20241311/1669%63.73%
2024148/1362%63.73%
20241511/1669%63.74%
20241612/1675%63.77%
20241713/1681%63.81%
2024189/1656%63.79%
2024194/667%63.79%
2024203/475%63.80%
2024212/2100%63.81%
2024221/1100%63.81%
2025110/1662%63.81%
2025213/1681%63.85%
2025311/1669%63.86%
202549/1656%63.85%
202556/1443%63.80%
202568/1553%63.78%
2025711/1573%63.80%
2025810/1377%63.83%
202598/1457%63.81%
20251011/1479%63.84%
20251113/1587%63.89%
2025129/1464%63.89%
2025138/1650%63.86%
2025149/1464%63.86%
20251510/1662%63.86%
20251610/1662%63.86%
20251711/1669%63.87%
2025187/1644%63.82%
2025193/650%63.81%
2025203/475%63.82%
2025211/250%63.81%
2025220/10%63.80%

For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!