Home > , > Project TD Tuning β€” Version 14

Project TD Tuning β€” Version 14

We restructured this version β€” combined five factors into one, added one more, and dropped one that wasn’t pulling weight. We went from 23 factors down to 17. Two factors moved up, two moved down after recalibration. The number came in at 62.62% across 7,017 games. A step back from last time. The floor didn’t hold. That’s useful information. The consolidation didn’t help β€” knowing that is worth the run. We’ll carry it into the next version. Like V12 and V13, this run uses week-by-week summaries rather than the full game-by-game breakdown.
Weeks Run
551
Accuracy
63%
Avg Error
10.7 pts
SeasonWeekW/LAccuracyCumulative
2000113/1587%86.67%
200029/1560%73.33%
200039/1464%70.45%
200046/1443%63.79%
200059/1464%63.89%
200069/1464%63.95%
2000711/1479%66.00%
200089/1464%65.79%
200097/1450%64.06%
2000109/1560%63.64%
2000118/1553%62.66%
2000128/1553%61.85%
20001310/1567%62.23%
2000147/1547%61.08%
20001512/1580%62.39%
2000168/1553%61.80%
20001711/1573%62.50%
2000184/4100%63.10%
2000193/475%63.28%
2000201/250%63.18%
2000210/10%62.93%
200118/1553%62.41%
200126/1443%61.46%
200137/1450%60.93%
2001412/1580%61.83%
2001510/1471%62.24%
200162/1315%60.47%
200177/1450%60.06%
2001810/1471%60.48%
2001911/1573%60.98%
2001109/1560%60.95%
2001119/1560%60.91%
20011210/1567%61.11%
20011311/1573%61.52%
20011411/1573%61.90%
20011511/1573%62.26%
2001167/1547%61.79%
20011710/1567%61.93%
2001183/475%62.04%
2001193/475%62.14%
2001201/250%62.09%
2001210/10%61.97%
2002110/1662%61.99%
200223/1619%60.73%
2002310/1471%60.99%
2002411/1479%61.42%
200259/1464%61.49%
200267/1450%61.22%
2002710/1471%61.45%
200288/1457%61.36%
200298/1457%61.27%
2002108/1457%61.18%
20021113/1681%61.65%
20021210/1662%61.67%
20021313/1681%62.11%
20021412/1675%62.40%
20021510/1662%62.40%
20021611/1669%62.53%
20021714/1688%63.05%
2002183/475%63.11%
2002194/4100%63.30%
2002201/250%63.27%
2002211/1100%63.31%
2003111/1669%63.42%
2003211/1669%63.53%
2003312/1486%63.90%
200349/1464%63.91%
200359/1464%63.91%
2003612/1486%64.26%
200375/1436%63.81%
2003811/1479%64.04%
200395/1436%63.61%
2003108/1457%63.51%
20031112/1675%63.70%
20031213/1681%64.00%
2003139/1656%63.87%
2003149/1656%63.75%
20031515/1694%64.22%
20031610/1662%64.20%
20031711/1669%64.27%
2003183/475%64.31%
2003192/450%64.25%
2003201/250%64.22%
2003211/1100%64.26%
200418/1650%64.04%
200429/1656%63.93%
200438/1457%63.84%
200447/1450%63.67%
200459/1464%63.68%
2004610/1471%63.77%
200477/1450%63.60%
200489/1464%63.61%
200498/1457%63.54%
2004108/1457%63.46%
20041111/1669%63.53%
20041211/1669%63.60%
2004139/1656%63.50%
20041413/1681%63.73%
2004159/1656%63.64%
20041611/1669%63.70%
20041710/1662%63.69%
2004181/425%63.57%
2004194/4100%63.68%
2004201/250%63.66%
2004211/1100%63.68%
2005110/1662%63.67%
2005212/1675%63.80%
2005310/1471%63.88%
2005411/1479%64.03%
200558/1457%63.96%
200569/1464%63.97%
2005710/1471%64.04%
200589/1464%64.04%
200599/1464%64.04%
20051010/1471%64.11%
20051110/1662%64.10%
20051211/1669%64.15%
20051314/1688%64.39%
20051411/1669%64.44%
20051511/1669%64.48%
20051611/1669%64.53%
20051710/1662%64.51%
2005181/425%64.41%
2005192/450%64.37%
2005201/250%64.35%
2005211/1100%64.38%
200616/1638%64.11%
2006213/1681%64.28%
200636/1443%64.09%
200648/1457%64.03%
2006513/1493%64.28%
200668/1362%64.26%
200677/1354%64.18%
200686/1443%64.00%
200698/1457%63.94%
2006109/1656%63.87%
2006119/1656%63.80%
20061214/1688%64.02%
2006137/1644%63.84%
2006143/1619%63.43%
2006159/1656%63.37%
2006166/1638%63.14%
2006177/1644%62.98%
2006184/4100%63.06%
2006192/450%63.03%
2006202/2100%63.07%
2006210/10%63.03%
2007110/1662%63.03%
2007210/1662%63.02%
2007312/1675%63.12%
200747/1450%63.03%
200759/1464%63.04%
200769/1369%63.08%
200779/1464%63.09%
200788/1362%63.08%
200799/1464%63.09%
2007104/1429%62.84%
20071112/1675%62.94%
20071212/1675%63.04%
2007138/1650%62.93%
20071412/1675%63.03%
2007159/1656%62.98%
20071611/1669%63.02%
20071710/1662%63.02%
2007182/450%62.99%
2007192/450%62.97%
2007201/250%62.95%
2007210/10%62.92%
2008110/1662%62.92%
200828/1553%62.85%
2008312/1675%62.94%
200848/1362%62.94%
200858/1457%62.90%
2008610/1471%62.95%
2008711/1479%63.05%
2008811/1479%63.15%
200899/1464%63.16%
2008109/1464%63.16%
20081111/1669%63.20%
2008127/1644%63.07%
2008139/1656%63.02%
20081413/1681%63.14%
20081510/1662%63.14%
2008167/1644%63.01%
20081713/1681%63.13%
2008180/40%63.03%
2008191/425%62.96%
2008202/2100%62.99%
2008210/10%62.97%
2009112/1675%63.05%
200928/1650%62.96%
2009311/1669%63.00%
2009414/14100%63.21%
2009511/1479%63.30%
200968/1457%63.26%
200979/1369%63.29%
200988/1362%63.28%
200997/1354%63.24%
20091011/1573%63.30%
20091110/1662%63.29%
20091213/1681%63.40%
20091312/1675%63.47%
20091410/1662%63.47%
2009159/1656%63.42%
20091610/1662%63.42%
2009179/1656%63.37%
2009181/425%63.32%
2009193/475%63.33%
2009202/2100%63.36%
2009210/10%63.34%
2010112/1675%63.41%
201029/1656%63.37%
201036/1638%63.21%
201048/1457%63.18%
201057/1450%63.11%
2010610/1471%63.16%
201079/1464%63.16%
201088/1362%63.15%
2010910/1377%63.22%
20101010/1471%63.26%
20101112/1675%63.33%
2010128/1650%63.25%
20101311/1669%63.28%
20101412/1675%63.35%
2010159/1656%63.31%
2010169/1656%63.27%
20101713/1681%63.37%
2010180/40%63.28%
2010192/450%63.26%
2010201/250%63.25%
2010211/1100%63.27%
2011111/1669%63.30%
2011211/1669%63.33%
2011312/1675%63.39%
2011412/1675%63.45%
201159/1369%63.48%
2011611/1385%63.57%
201177/1354%63.53%
201189/1369%63.55%
201196/1443%63.45%
2011107/1644%63.35%
20111112/1486%63.45%
20111211/1669%63.48%
20111311/1669%63.51%
20111410/1662%63.50%
2011159/1656%63.47%
2011169/1656%63.43%
20111712/1675%63.49%
2011183/475%63.50%
2011192/450%63.49%
2011201/250%63.48%
2011210/10%63.46%
2012110/1662%63.45%
2012213/1681%63.54%
201234/1625%63.35%
2012411/1573%63.40%
201257/1450%63.34%
201265/1436%63.22%
2012710/1377%63.27%
201288/1457%63.25%
201299/1464%63.25%
2012108/1457%63.23%
20121111/1479%63.29%
2012129/1656%63.26%
20121311/1669%63.28%
20121410/1662%63.28%
20121510/1662%63.28%
20121611/1669%63.30%
20121712/1675%63.36%
2012183/475%63.37%
2012193/475%63.38%
2012200/20%63.35%
2012210/10%63.33%
201319/1656%63.30%
2013211/1669%63.32%
2013310/1662%63.32%
201349/1560%63.30%
201356/1443%63.22%
201369/1560%63.21%
201378/1553%63.17%
2013811/1385%63.24%
201397/1354%63.21%
2013106/1443%63.13%
20131112/1580%63.20%
2013126/1443%63.12%
2013139/1656%63.09%
20131415/1694%63.23%
2013158/1650%63.17%
20131610/1662%63.17%
20131712/1675%63.22%
2013181/425%63.18%
2013193/475%63.19%
2013202/2100%63.21%
2013210/10%63.19%
201419/1656%63.16%
201427/1644%63.08%
2014310/1662%63.08%
201448/1362%63.07%
2014513/1587%63.16%
2014610/1567%63.18%
2014711/1573%63.22%
201488/1553%63.18%
201499/1369%63.20%
2014108/1362%63.19%
2014117/1450%63.15%
20141211/1573%63.19%
2014139/1656%63.16%
20141410/1662%63.16%
2014159/1656%63.13%
2014168/1650%63.07%
20141712/1675%63.12%
2014183/475%63.13%
2014193/475%63.15%
2014202/2100%63.16%
2014210/10%63.15%
2015113/1681%63.22%
201528/1650%63.17%
2015310/1662%63.17%
2015410/1567%63.18%
201559/1464%63.18%
201569/1464%63.19%
201578/1457%63.17%
2015810/1471%63.19%
201598/1362%63.19%
2015104/1429%63.07%
2015118/1457%63.05%
20151211/1669%63.07%
2015139/1656%63.05%
20151410/1662%63.05%
20151510/1662%63.04%
2015169/1656%63.02%
20151710/1662%63.02%
2015182/450%63.00%
2015194/4100%63.04%
2015202/2100%63.06%
2015210/10%63.04%
201618/1650%62.99%
2016211/1669%63.01%
201639/1656%62.99%
201646/1540%62.91%
201659/1464%62.91%
2016610/1567%62.93%
201678/1553%62.89%
201689/1369%62.91%
201699/1369%62.93%
2016107/1450%62.89%
20161111/1479%62.94%
20161211/1669%62.96%
20161310/1567%62.97%
20161411/1669%62.99%
20161511/1669%63.01%
2016169/1656%62.99%
20161711/1669%63.01%
2016184/4100%63.04%
2016192/450%63.03%
2016202/2100%63.05%
2016210/10%63.03%
201719/1560%63.02%
2017213/1681%63.09%
2017310/1662%63.09%
201749/1656%63.06%
201759/1464%63.07%
201766/1443%63.00%
2017710/1567%63.02%
2017810/1377%63.05%
201798/1362%63.05%
20171010/1471%63.08%
2017118/1457%63.06%
20171210/1662%63.06%
20171314/1688%63.14%
2017146/1638%63.05%
20171511/1669%63.07%
20171612/1675%63.11%
20171710/1662%63.11%
2017182/450%63.10%
2017193/475%63.11%
2017202/2100%63.12%
2017210/10%63.11%
2018110/1662%63.11%
2018210/1662%63.11%
201838/1650%63.06%
2018410/1567%63.07%
2018511/1573%63.11%
2018612/1580%63.16%
201878/1457%63.14%
201888/1457%63.12%
201899/1369%63.14%
2018108/1457%63.12%
2018119/1369%63.14%
20181212/1580%63.19%
2018139/1656%63.17%
2018149/1656%63.15%
20181510/1662%63.14%
20181611/1669%63.16%
20181711/1669%63.18%
2018181/425%63.15%
2018194/4100%63.18%
2018200/20%63.15%
2018210/10%63.14%
2019112/1675%63.18%
201928/1650%63.14%
201939/1656%63.11%
201947/1547%63.07%
201959/1560%63.06%
201967/1450%63.02%
2019710/1471%63.04%
2019811/1573%63.07%
2019912/1486%63.14%
2019108/1362%63.13%
2019118/1457%63.12%
20191211/1479%63.16%
2019138/1650%63.12%
20191411/1669%63.13%
20191510/1662%63.13%
2019169/1656%63.11%
2019179/1656%63.09%
2019181/425%63.06%
2019193/475%63.07%
2019202/2100%63.08%
2019211/1100%63.09%
2020111/1669%63.11%
2020213/1681%63.16%
202038/1650%63.12%
202048/1553%63.10%
2020510/1471%63.12%
202067/1450%63.08%
202078/1457%63.07%
202088/1457%63.05%
202097/1450%63.02%
20201011/1479%63.06%
20201111/1479%63.10%
20201211/1669%63.12%
2020137/1547%63.07%
2020149/1656%63.05%
2020158/1650%63.01%
2020169/1656%62.99%
20201713/1681%63.05%
2020183/650%63.03%
2020193/475%63.04%
2020201/250%63.04%
2020211/1100%63.04%
202115/1631%62.95%
202128/1650%62.92%
2021311/1669%62.93%
202149/1656%62.91%
2021511/1669%62.93%
202168/1457%62.92%
202179/1369%62.93%
202186/1540%62.87%
202198/1457%62.86%
2021106/1443%62.81%
2021118/1553%62.78%
2021129/1560%62.77%
2021136/1443%62.73%
2021149/1464%62.73%
2021159/1656%62.71%
20211611/1669%62.73%
20211712/1675%62.76%
2021186/1638%62.69%
2021195/683%62.72%
2021201/425%62.69%
2021211/250%62.69%
2021220/10%62.67%
202219/1656%62.66%
2022212/1675%62.69%
202239/1656%62.67%
202247/1644%62.62%
202259/1656%62.60%
202268/1457%62.59%
202278/1457%62.58%
2022810/1567%62.59%
202299/1369%62.60%
2022107/1450%62.57%
2022119/1464%62.58%
20221211/1669%62.59%
20221310/1567%62.60%
2022148/1362%62.60%
20221510/1662%62.60%
20221610/1662%62.60%
20221712/1580%62.64%
20221811/1669%62.66%
2022194/667%62.66%
2022203/475%62.67%
2022212/2100%62.68%
2022220/10%62.67%
202317/1644%62.63%
202327/1644%62.58%
2023311/1669%62.59%
202348/1650%62.56%
202358/1457%62.55%
202369/1560%62.54%
202376/1346%62.51%
202389/1656%62.49%
2023910/1471%62.51%
2023107/1450%62.48%
20231112/1486%62.54%
20231211/1669%62.55%
2023137/1354%62.53%
2023147/1547%62.50%
20231510/1662%62.50%
2023169/1656%62.48%
20231712/1675%62.51%
2023189/1656%62.50%
2023195/683%62.52%
2023203/475%62.52%
2023211/250%62.52%
2023221/1100%62.53%
2024111/1669%62.54%
202426/1638%62.48%
202439/1656%62.46%
202448/1650%62.43%
202457/1450%62.41%
202468/1457%62.39%
2024711/1573%62.42%
2024811/1669%62.44%
2024913/1587%62.49%
2024107/1450%62.46%
20241110/1471%62.48%
2024129/1369%62.50%
20241311/1669%62.51%
2024149/1369%62.52%
20241510/1662%62.52%
20241615/1694%62.60%
20241712/1675%62.63%
2024188/1650%62.60%
2024194/667%62.60%
2024203/475%62.61%
2024212/2100%62.62%
2024221/1100%62.63%
2025111/1669%62.64%
2025212/1675%62.67%
2025312/1675%62.70%
2025410/1662%62.70%
202555/1436%62.64%
202569/1560%62.64%
2025711/1573%62.66%
202589/1369%62.67%
202595/1436%62.62%
2025108/1457%62.61%
20251114/1593%62.67%
2025129/1464%62.68%
20251310/1662%62.68%
20251410/1471%62.69%
20251510/1662%62.69%
2025168/1650%62.66%
2025179/1656%62.65%
2025189/1656%62.64%
2025193/650%62.62%
2025203/475%62.63%
2025211/250%62.63%
2025220/10%62.62%

For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!