Home > , > Project TD Tuning β€” Version 15

Project TD Tuning β€” Version 15

We dropped one factor that wasn’t contributing and recalibrated. The model went from 17 factors to 16. The number came back: 63.89% across 7,017 games. The floor held β€” and then some. That tells us the factor we removed in this version was the one causing the regression in V14, not the broader restructuring we did before it. Like V12–V14, this run uses week-by-week summaries.
Weeks Run
551
Accuracy
64%
Avg Error
10.6 pts
SeasonWeekW/LAccuracyCumulative
2000113/1587%86.67%
2000210/1567%76.67%
200039/1464%72.73%
200049/1464%70.69%
200059/1464%69.44%
200069/1464%68.60%
2000712/1486%71.00%
2000811/1479%71.93%
200097/1450%69.53%
20001010/1567%69.23%
2000118/1553%67.72%
2000128/1553%66.47%
20001310/1567%66.49%
20001411/1573%67.00%
20001511/1573%67.43%
2000168/1553%66.52%
20001711/1573%66.94%
2000184/4100%67.46%
2000193/475%67.58%
2000201/250%67.44%
2000210/10%67.18%
2001110/1567%67.15%
200126/1443%65.97%
200139/1464%65.89%
2001412/1580%66.56%
2001510/1471%66.77%
200162/1315%64.83%
2001711/1479%65.36%
200189/1464%65.32%
2001912/1580%65.89%
2001109/1560%65.67%
20011111/1573%65.95%
20011211/1573%66.20%
20011312/1580%66.67%
20011411/1573%66.88%
20011512/1580%67.30%
2001169/1560%67.07%
20011710/1567%67.06%
2001183/475%67.12%
2001193/475%67.18%
2001201/250%67.12%
2001210/10%66.99%
2002110/1662%66.85%
200223/1619%65.45%
200239/1464%65.43%
200249/1464%65.40%
200259/1464%65.37%
200267/1450%65.02%
200279/1464%65.00%
200287/1450%64.67%
200297/1450%64.35%
2002108/1457%64.20%
20021113/1681%64.60%
2002128/1650%64.27%
20021313/1681%64.65%
20021412/1675%64.88%
2002159/1656%64.69%
20021611/1669%64.78%
20021713/1681%65.12%
2002182/450%65.04%
2002194/4100%65.22%
2002201/250%65.18%
2002210/10%65.10%
2003111/1669%65.17%
2003210/1662%65.12%
2003310/1471%65.22%
200348/1457%65.09%
200359/1464%65.08%
2003610/1471%65.18%
200378/1457%65.05%
2003810/1471%65.15%
200396/1443%64.81%
2003107/1450%64.59%
20031112/1675%64.76%
20031212/1675%64.93%
2003139/1656%64.79%
2003148/1650%64.55%
20031514/1688%64.92%
20031611/1669%64.98%
20031711/1669%65.03%
2003183/475%65.07%
2003192/450%65.01%
2003201/250%64.99%
2003211/1100%65.02%
200418/1650%64.79%
200429/1656%64.67%
2004310/1471%64.75%
200448/1457%64.66%
200459/1464%64.65%
2004610/1471%64.74%
200477/1450%64.56%
200488/1457%64.47%
200496/1443%64.21%
2004108/1457%64.13%
20041112/1675%64.27%
20041210/1662%64.25%
20041311/1669%64.31%
20041413/1681%64.52%
20041510/1662%64.50%
20041612/1675%64.63%
2004178/1650%64.45%
2004181/425%64.33%
2004194/4100%64.44%
2004201/250%64.42%
2004211/1100%64.44%
200519/1656%64.34%
2005210/1662%64.32%
200538/1457%64.25%
2005411/1479%64.39%
200557/1450%64.25%
2005610/1471%64.32%
200578/1457%64.25%
200589/1464%64.25%
200598/1457%64.18%
20051010/1471%64.25%
20051110/1662%64.23%
20051213/1681%64.41%
20051313/1681%64.59%
20051411/1669%64.64%
20051511/1669%64.68%
20051611/1669%64.72%
20051710/1662%64.70%
2005182/450%64.66%
2005192/450%64.62%
2005201/250%64.61%
2005211/1100%64.63%
200617/1644%64.42%
2006212/1675%64.52%
2006310/1471%64.58%
2006410/1471%64.64%
2006513/1493%64.88%
200667/1354%64.79%
200675/1338%64.59%
200688/1457%64.53%
200698/1457%64.47%
2006109/1656%64.39%
2006118/1650%64.26%
20061212/1675%64.36%
2006138/1650%64.23%
2006146/1638%63.99%
20061512/1675%64.09%
2006168/1650%63.96%
2006177/1644%63.79%
2006183/475%63.81%
2006192/450%63.78%
2006202/2100%63.82%
2006210/10%63.79%
200718/1650%63.67%
2007210/1662%63.66%
2007314/1688%63.86%
200745/1436%63.66%
2007510/1471%63.71%
200768/1362%63.70%
2007711/1479%63.80%
200789/1369%63.84%
200798/1457%63.79%
2007105/1436%63.60%
20071112/1675%63.69%
20071213/1681%63.82%
2007139/1656%63.77%
20071413/1681%63.90%
20071510/1662%63.89%
20071611/1669%63.93%
2007179/1656%63.87%
2007183/475%63.89%
2007192/450%63.86%
2007201/250%63.85%
2007210/10%63.82%
2008110/1662%63.81%
200829/1560%63.78%
2008311/1669%63.82%
200848/1362%63.81%
200859/1464%63.81%
200869/1464%63.81%
2008711/1479%63.91%
2008812/1486%64.04%
200899/1464%64.04%
20081010/1471%64.09%
20081111/1669%64.12%
20081211/1669%64.16%
20081310/1662%64.14%
20081413/1681%64.26%
20081510/1662%64.25%
2008167/1644%64.11%
20081713/1681%64.23%
2008180/40%64.12%
2008191/425%64.05%
2008201/250%64.04%
2008211/1100%64.06%
2009112/1675%64.13%
200928/1650%64.03%
2009312/1675%64.11%
2009414/14100%64.31%
2009512/1486%64.43%
200968/1457%64.39%
2009710/1377%64.46%
200988/1362%64.44%
200998/1362%64.43%
2009109/1560%64.40%
20091111/1669%64.43%
20091212/1675%64.49%
20091311/1669%64.52%
20091410/1662%64.51%
20091510/1662%64.50%
20091611/1669%64.52%
2009179/1656%64.47%
2009182/450%64.45%
2009193/475%64.47%
2009202/2100%64.49%
2009210/10%64.47%
2010110/1662%64.46%
2010210/1662%64.45%
201039/1656%64.40%
201049/1464%64.40%
201057/1450%64.32%
2010610/1471%64.36%
2010710/1471%64.39%
201089/1369%64.42%
201099/1369%64.44%
2010109/1464%64.44%
20101113/1681%64.53%
2010129/1656%64.49%
20101312/1675%64.55%
20101412/1675%64.61%
2010159/1656%64.56%
2010169/1656%64.51%
20101712/1675%64.57%
2010181/425%64.52%
2010192/450%64.50%
2010201/250%64.49%
2010211/1100%64.50%
2011110/1662%64.49%
2011211/1669%64.51%
2011312/1675%64.57%
2011410/1662%64.56%
201158/1362%64.54%
2011610/1377%64.60%
201176/1346%64.52%
201189/1369%64.54%
201197/1450%64.47%
2011107/1644%64.36%
20111112/1486%64.46%
20111212/1675%64.51%
20111311/1669%64.54%
20111411/1669%64.56%
2011158/1650%64.48%
20111610/1662%64.47%
20111711/1669%64.49%
2011183/475%64.51%
2011192/450%64.49%
2011201/250%64.48%
2011210/10%64.46%
2012111/1669%64.48%
2012212/1675%64.53%
201235/1631%64.37%
2012411/1573%64.41%
201258/1457%64.38%
201265/1436%64.26%
2012710/1377%64.31%
201289/1464%64.31%
201298/1457%64.28%
2012108/1457%64.25%
20121112/1486%64.34%
2012129/1656%64.30%
20121311/1669%64.32%
2012149/1656%64.28%
20121511/1669%64.30%
20121611/1669%64.32%
20121713/1681%64.40%
2012182/450%64.39%
2012193/475%64.40%
2012200/20%64.36%
2012210/10%64.34%
201319/1656%64.30%
2013211/1669%64.32%
201339/1656%64.29%
2013410/1567%64.30%
201357/1450%64.24%
201369/1560%64.22%
201378/1553%64.18%
2013810/1377%64.22%
201397/1354%64.19%
2013107/1450%64.13%
2013119/1560%64.11%
2013128/1457%64.09%
20131310/1662%64.08%
20131415/1694%64.21%
2013158/1650%64.15%
20131611/1669%64.17%
20131713/1681%64.24%
2013182/450%64.23%
2013193/475%64.24%
2013202/2100%64.26%
2013210/10%64.24%
2014110/1662%64.23%
201428/1650%64.17%
2014311/1669%64.19%
201447/1354%64.16%
2014513/1587%64.24%
2014610/1567%64.25%
201479/1560%64.24%
201488/1553%64.19%
2014910/1377%64.24%
2014109/1369%64.25%
2014116/1443%64.18%
20141212/1580%64.24%
2014137/1644%64.15%
20141411/1669%64.17%
20141511/1669%64.19%
2014168/1650%64.13%
20141712/1675%64.18%
2014183/475%64.19%
2014193/475%64.20%
2014202/2100%64.22%
2014210/10%64.20%
2015110/1662%64.19%
201528/1650%64.14%
2015310/1662%64.13%
201549/1560%64.12%
2015512/1486%64.19%
2015610/1471%64.22%
2015710/1471%64.24%
2015810/1471%64.26%
201597/1354%64.23%
2015104/1429%64.11%
2015116/1443%64.04%
2015129/1656%64.01%
2015138/1650%63.96%
20151410/1662%63.95%
20151512/1675%63.99%
2015169/1656%63.96%
20151711/1669%63.98%
2015182/450%63.97%
2015194/4100%64.00%
2015201/250%64.00%
2015210/10%63.98%
2016110/1662%63.97%
2016211/1669%63.99%
201639/1656%63.96%
201648/1553%63.93%
201658/1457%63.90%
2016610/1567%63.91%
2016711/1573%63.95%
201688/1362%63.94%
201698/1362%63.93%
2016108/1457%63.91%
20161112/1486%63.98%
20161212/1675%64.02%
20161310/1567%64.03%
20161413/1681%64.09%
20161514/1688%64.17%
20161611/1669%64.19%
20161710/1662%64.18%
2016184/4100%64.22%
2016192/450%64.20%
2016202/2100%64.22%
2016210/10%64.21%
201719/1560%64.19%
2017213/1681%64.25%
201738/1650%64.20%
2017410/1662%64.20%
2017510/1471%64.22%
201765/1436%64.13%
2017710/1567%64.14%
2017811/1385%64.20%
201797/1354%64.17%
20171013/1493%64.25%
2017118/1457%64.23%
20171211/1669%64.25%
20171314/1688%64.33%
2017147/1644%64.26%
2017159/1656%64.23%
20171614/1688%64.31%
2017178/1650%64.26%
2017182/450%64.25%
2017193/475%64.26%
2017202/2100%64.27%
2017210/10%64.26%
2018110/1662%64.25%
201829/1656%64.23%
201837/1644%64.16%
2018410/1567%64.17%
2018510/1567%64.17%
2018612/1580%64.22%
2018710/1471%64.24%
2018811/1479%64.28%
2018910/1377%64.32%
2018107/1450%64.28%
2018118/1362%64.27%
20181211/1573%64.30%
2018138/1650%64.25%
2018148/1650%64.21%
20181510/1662%64.20%
2018169/1656%64.17%
20181712/1675%64.21%
2018182/450%64.20%
2018194/4100%64.23%
2018200/20%64.20%
2018210/10%64.19%
2019111/1669%64.20%
2019210/1662%64.20%
2019311/1669%64.21%
201947/1547%64.16%
201958/1553%64.13%
201965/1436%64.05%
2019711/1479%64.09%
2019812/1580%64.14%
2019912/1486%64.19%
2019106/1346%64.15%
20191110/1471%64.17%
20191210/1471%64.19%
2019138/1650%64.15%
20191413/1681%64.20%
20191510/1662%64.19%
20191610/1662%64.19%
2019178/1650%64.14%
2019181/425%64.12%
2019193/475%64.12%
2019202/2100%64.14%
2019211/1100%64.14%
2020112/1675%64.18%
2020213/1681%64.23%
202039/1656%64.20%
202047/1547%64.15%
202059/1464%64.15%
202068/1457%64.14%
202078/1457%64.12%
202089/1464%64.12%
202099/1464%64.12%
20201011/1479%64.16%
2020119/1464%64.16%
20201211/1669%64.17%
20201310/1567%64.18%
2020149/1656%64.15%
20201511/1669%64.17%
20201611/1669%64.18%
20201713/1681%64.23%
2020184/667%64.23%
2020193/475%64.24%
2020201/250%64.23%
2020211/1100%64.24%
202116/1638%64.16%
202129/1656%64.14%
2021310/1662%64.14%
2021410/1662%64.13%
2021512/1675%64.16%
202168/1457%64.15%
202179/1369%64.16%
202188/1553%64.13%
202197/1450%64.09%
2021106/1443%64.04%
2021119/1560%64.03%
20211212/1580%64.07%
2021138/1457%64.06%
2021149/1464%64.06%
20211510/1662%64.05%
20211610/1662%64.05%
20211712/1675%64.08%
2021187/1644%64.02%
2021194/667%64.03%
2021201/425%64.00%
2021211/250%64.00%
2021220/10%63.98%
202218/1650%63.95%
2022212/1675%63.98%
202239/1656%63.96%
2022410/1662%63.95%
202259/1656%63.93%
202268/1457%63.91%
202279/1464%63.92%
2022810/1567%63.92%
202299/1369%63.93%
2022106/1443%63.89%
20221110/1471%63.90%
20221211/1669%63.92%
20221311/1573%63.94%
2022148/1362%63.93%
20221510/1662%63.93%
20221610/1662%63.93%
20221712/1580%63.97%
20221810/1662%63.96%
2022194/667%63.96%
2022203/475%63.97%
2022212/2100%63.98%
2022220/10%63.97%
202316/1638%63.90%
202328/1650%63.87%
2023312/1675%63.90%
2023411/1669%63.91%
202359/1464%63.91%
2023610/1567%63.92%
202374/1331%63.85%
202389/1656%63.83%
2023911/1479%63.86%
2023109/1464%63.86%
20231111/1479%63.90%
2023129/1656%63.88%
2023138/1362%63.87%
2023146/1540%63.81%
20231510/1662%63.81%
2023168/1650%63.78%
20231712/1675%63.80%
2023188/1650%63.77%
2023195/683%63.79%
2023203/475%63.80%
2023211/250%63.79%
2023221/1100%63.80%
2024111/1669%63.81%
202426/1638%63.74%
2024310/1662%63.74%
202448/1650%63.71%
202457/1450%63.68%
2024610/1471%63.69%
2024712/1580%63.73%
2024812/1675%63.76%
2024911/1573%63.78%
2024108/1457%63.77%
2024119/1464%63.77%
2024129/1369%63.78%
20241311/1669%63.79%
2024148/1362%63.79%
20241511/1669%63.80%
20241612/1675%63.83%
20241713/1681%63.87%
2024188/1650%63.83%
2024194/667%63.84%
2024203/475%63.84%
2024212/2100%63.85%
2024221/1100%63.86%
2025110/1662%63.86%
2025213/1681%63.90%
2025311/1669%63.91%
2025410/1662%63.91%
202556/1443%63.86%
202568/1553%63.84%
2025711/1573%63.86%
2025810/1377%63.88%
202598/1457%63.87%
20251011/1479%63.90%
20251113/1587%63.95%
2025129/1464%63.95%
2025139/1656%63.93%
2025149/1464%63.93%
20251510/1662%63.93%
20251610/1662%63.93%
20251711/1669%63.94%
2025187/1644%63.89%
2025193/650%63.88%
2025203/475%63.89%
2025212/2100%63.90%
2025220/10%63.89%

For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!