This version is different. For the first time, we calibrated the model on older data only — games through 2017 — and measured accuracy on seasons it had never seen: 2018 through 2025.
The number: 63.09% across 2,227 games. Eight seasons, genuinely out-of-sample.
The gap between that and our in-sample number is less than one percentage point. That’s the result we were looking for — it means the model isn’t just memorizing history, it’s actually learning something that holds up on new data.
This run uses week-by-week summaries.
| Season | Week | W/L | Accuracy | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.50% |
| 2018 | 2 | 9/16 | 56% | 59.38% |
| 2018 | 3 | 7/16 | 44% | 54.17% |
| 2018 | 4 | 10/15 | 67% | 57.14% |
| 2018 | 5 | 10/15 | 67% | 58.97% |
| 2018 | 6 | 12/15 | 80% | 62.37% |
| 2018 | 7 | 10/14 | 71% | 63.55% |
| 2018 | 8 | 11/14 | 79% | 65.29% |
| 2018 | 9 | 10/13 | 77% | 66.42% |
| 2018 | 10 | 7/14 | 50% | 64.86% |
| 2018 | 11 | 8/13 | 62% | 64.60% |
| 2018 | 12 | 11/15 | 73% | 65.34% |
| 2018 | 13 | 8/16 | 50% | 64.06% |
| 2018 | 14 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.98% |
| 2018 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.95% |
| 2018 | 16 | 9/16 | 56% | 62.50% |
| 2018 | 17 | 12/16 | 75% | 63.28% |
| 2018 | 18 | 2/4 | 50% | 63.08% |
| 2018 | 19 | 4/4 | 100% | 63.64% |
| 2018 | 20 | 0/2 | 0% | 63.16% |
| 2018 | 21 | 0/1 | 0% | 62.92% |
| 2019 | 1 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.25% |
| 2019 | 2 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.21% |
| 2019 | 3 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.49% |
| 2019 | 4 | 7/15 | 47% | 62.73% |
| 2019 | 5 | 8/15 | 53% | 62.32% |
| 2019 | 6 | 5/14 | 36% | 61.28% |
| 2019 | 7 | 11/14 | 79% | 61.93% |
| 2019 | 8 | 12/15 | 80% | 62.63% |
| 2019 | 9 | 12/14 | 86% | 63.43% |
| 2019 | 10 | 6/13 | 46% | 62.89% |
| 2019 | 11 | 10/14 | 71% | 63.17% |
| 2019 | 12 | 10/14 | 71% | 63.43% |
| 2019 | 13 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.96% |
| 2019 | 14 | 13/16 | 81% | 63.58% |
| 2019 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.54% |
| 2019 | 16 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.51% |
| 2019 | 17 | 8/16 | 50% | 63.10% |
| 2019 | 18 | 1/4 | 25% | 62.81% |
| 2019 | 19 | 3/4 | 75% | 62.90% |
| 2019 | 20 | 2/2 | 100% | 63.04% |
| 2019 | 21 | 1/1 | 100% | 63.11% |
| 2020 | 1 | 12/16 | 75% | 63.45% |
| 2020 | 2 | 13/16 | 81% | 63.96% |
| 2020 | 3 | 9/16 | 56% | 63.75% |
| 2020 | 4 | 7/15 | 47% | 63.32% |
| 2020 | 5 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.34% |
| 2020 | 6 | 8/14 | 57% | 63.20% |
| 2020 | 7 | 8/14 | 57% | 63.07% |
| 2020 | 8 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.09% |
| 2020 | 9 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.12% |
| 2020 | 10 | 11/14 | 79% | 63.44% |
| 2020 | 11 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.45% |
| 2020 | 12 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.57% |
| 2020 | 13 | 10/15 | 67% | 63.64% |
| 2020 | 14 | 9/16 | 56% | 63.48% |
| 2020 | 15 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.59% |
| 2020 | 16 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.70% |
| 2020 | 17 | 13/16 | 81% | 64.05% |
| 2020 | 18 | 4/6 | 67% | 64.07% |
| 2020 | 19 | 3/4 | 75% | 64.12% |
| 2020 | 20 | 1/2 | 50% | 64.09% |
| 2020 | 21 | 1/1 | 100% | 64.13% |
| 2021 | 1 | 6/16 | 38% | 63.61% |
| 2021 | 2 | 9/16 | 56% | 63.47% |
| 2021 | 3 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.45% |
| 2021 | 4 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.44% |
| 2021 | 5 | 12/16 | 75% | 63.65% |
| 2021 | 6 | 8/14 | 57% | 63.55% |
| 2021 | 7 | 9/13 | 69% | 63.63% |
| 2021 | 8 | 8/15 | 53% | 63.46% |
| 2021 | 9 | 7/14 | 50% | 63.26% |
| 2021 | 10 | 6/14 | 43% | 62.96% |
| 2021 | 11 | 9/15 | 60% | 62.91% |
| 2021 | 12 | 12/15 | 80% | 63.17% |
| 2021 | 13 | 8/14 | 57% | 63.09% |
| 2021 | 14 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.11% |
| 2021 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.10% |
| 2021 | 16 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.09% |
| 2021 | 17 | 12/16 | 75% | 63.27% |
| 2021 | 18 | 7/16 | 44% | 62.98% |
| 2021 | 19 | 4/6 | 67% | 63.00% |
| 2021 | 20 | 1/4 | 25% | 62.86% |
| 2021 | 21 | 1/2 | 50% | 62.83% |
| 2021 | 22 | 0/1 | 0% | 62.78% |
| 2022 | 1 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.59% |
| 2022 | 2 | 12/16 | 75% | 62.77% |
| 2022 | 3 | 9/16 | 56% | 62.68% |
| 2022 | 4 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.67% |
| 2022 | 5 | 9/16 | 56% | 62.59% |
| 2022 | 6 | 8/14 | 57% | 62.52% |
| 2022 | 7 | 9/14 | 64% | 62.54% |
| 2022 | 8 | 10/15 | 67% | 62.59% |
| 2022 | 9 | 9/13 | 69% | 62.66% |
| 2022 | 10 | 6/14 | 43% | 62.44% |
| 2022 | 11 | 10/14 | 71% | 62.54% |
| 2022 | 12 | 11/16 | 69% | 62.62% |
| 2022 | 13 | 11/15 | 73% | 62.74% |
| 2022 | 14 | 8/13 | 62% | 62.73% |
| 2022 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.73% |
| 2022 | 16 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.73% |
| 2022 | 17 | 12/15 | 80% | 62.92% |
| 2022 | 18 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.91% |
| 2022 | 19 | 4/6 | 67% | 62.93% |
| 2022 | 20 | 3/4 | 75% | 62.97% |
| 2022 | 21 | 2/2 | 100% | 63.02% |
| 2022 | 22 | 0/1 | 0% | 62.97% |
| 2023 | 1 | 6/16 | 38% | 62.68% |
| 2023 | 2 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.54% |
| 2023 | 3 | 12/16 | 75% | 62.68% |
| 2023 | 4 | 11/16 | 69% | 62.74% |
| 2023 | 5 | 9/14 | 64% | 62.76% |
| 2023 | 6 | 10/15 | 67% | 62.80% |
| 2023 | 7 | 4/13 | 31% | 62.52% |
| 2023 | 8 | 9/16 | 56% | 62.45% |
| 2023 | 9 | 11/14 | 79% | 62.60% |
| 2023 | 10 | 9/14 | 64% | 62.61% |
| 2023 | 11 | 11/14 | 79% | 62.76% |
| 2023 | 12 | 9/16 | 56% | 62.69% |
| 2023 | 13 | 8/13 | 62% | 62.68% |
| 2023 | 14 | 6/15 | 40% | 62.47% |
| 2023 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.47% |
| 2023 | 16 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.34% |
| 2023 | 17 | 12/16 | 75% | 62.47% |
| 2023 | 18 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.35% |
| 2023 | 19 | 5/6 | 83% | 62.42% |
| 2023 | 20 | 3/4 | 75% | 62.45% |
| 2023 | 21 | 1/2 | 50% | 62.44% |
| 2023 | 22 | 1/1 | 100% | 62.46% |
| 2024 | 1 | 11/16 | 69% | 62.52% |
| 2024 | 2 | 6/16 | 38% | 62.29% |
| 2024 | 3 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.29% |
| 2024 | 4 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.17% |
| 2024 | 5 | 7/14 | 50% | 62.07% |
| 2024 | 6 | 10/14 | 71% | 62.15% |
| 2024 | 7 | 12/15 | 80% | 62.30% |
| 2024 | 8 | 12/16 | 75% | 62.42% |
| 2024 | 9 | 11/15 | 73% | 62.51% |
| 2024 | 10 | 8/14 | 57% | 62.47% |
| 2024 | 11 | 9/14 | 64% | 62.48% |
| 2024 | 12 | 9/13 | 69% | 62.53% |
| 2024 | 13 | 11/16 | 69% | 62.58% |
| 2024 | 14 | 8/13 | 62% | 62.57% |
| 2024 | 15 | 11/16 | 69% | 62.63% |
| 2024 | 16 | 12/16 | 75% | 62.73% |
| 2024 | 17 | 13/16 | 81% | 62.89% |
| 2024 | 18 | 8/16 | 50% | 62.78% |
| 2024 | 19 | 4/6 | 67% | 62.79% |
| 2024 | 20 | 3/4 | 75% | 62.82% |
| 2024 | 21 | 2/2 | 100% | 62.85% |
| 2024 | 22 | 1/1 | 100% | 62.87% |
| 2025 | 1 | 10/16 | 62% | 62.87% |
| 2025 | 2 | 13/16 | 81% | 63.02% |
| 2025 | 3 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.07% |
| 2025 | 4 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.06% |
| 2025 | 5 | 6/14 | 43% | 62.92% |
| 2025 | 6 | 8/15 | 53% | 62.85% |
| 2025 | 7 | 11/15 | 73% | 62.93% |
| 2025 | 8 | 10/13 | 77% | 63.02% |
| 2025 | 9 | 8/14 | 57% | 62.98% |
| 2025 | 10 | 11/14 | 79% | 63.08% |
| 2025 | 11 | 13/15 | 87% | 63.25% |
| 2025 | 12 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.25% |
| 2025 | 13 | 9/16 | 56% | 63.20% |
| 2025 | 14 | 9/14 | 64% | 63.21% |
| 2025 | 15 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.20% |
| 2025 | 16 | 10/16 | 62% | 63.20% |
| 2025 | 17 | 11/16 | 69% | 63.24% |
| 2025 | 18 | 7/16 | 44% | 63.10% |
| 2025 | 19 | 3/6 | 50% | 63.06% |
| 2025 | 20 | 3/4 | 75% | 63.08% |
| 2025 | 21 | 2/2 | 100% | 63.12% |
| 2025 | 22 | 0/1 | 0% | 63.09% |
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!