Project TD Tuning — Version 17

We added two weights and recalibrated. The model now has 18 factors. The number: 63.8% across 7,017 games. On the out-of-sample window (2018–2025), it lands at 62.8% — just under V16‘s 63.1%. Flat within noise; the new weights didn’t move the line. Like V12 through V16, this run uses week-by-week summaries.

Weeks Run

551

Accuracy

64%

Avg Error

10.6 pts

Season	Week	W/L	Accuracy	Cumulative
2000	1	12/15	80%	80.00%
2000	2	10/15	67%	73.33%
2000	3	9/14	64%	70.45%
2000	4	8/14	57%	67.24%
2000	5	9/14	64%	66.67%
2000	6	9/14	64%	66.28%
2000	7	12/14	86%	69.00%
2000	8	11/14	79%	70.18%
2000	9	7/14	50%	67.97%
2000	10	10/15	67%	67.83%
2000	11	8/15	53%	66.46%
2000	12	8/15	53%	65.32%
2000	13	10/15	67%	65.43%
2000	14	11/15	73%	66.01%
2000	15	11/15	73%	66.51%
2000	16	8/15	53%	65.67%
2000	17	11/15	73%	66.13%
2000	18	3/4	75%	66.27%
2000	19	3/4	75%	66.41%
2000	20	1/2	50%	66.28%
2000	21	0/1	0%	66.02%
2001	1	9/15	60%	65.69%
2001	2	6/14	43%	64.58%
2001	3	9/14	64%	64.57%
2001	4	12/15	80%	65.30%
2001	5	10/14	71%	65.56%
2001	6	2/13	15%	63.66%
2001	7	11/14	79%	64.25%
2001	8	9/14	64%	64.25%
2001	9	12/15	80%	64.86%
2001	10	9/15	60%	64.68%
2001	11	11/15	73%	64.99%
2001	12	11/15	73%	65.28%
2001	13	12/15	80%	65.77%
2001	14	11/15	73%	66.02%
2001	15	12/15	80%	66.46%
2001	16	9/15	60%	66.26%
2001	17	9/15	60%	66.07%
2001	18	3/4	75%	66.14%
2001	19	3/4	75%	66.21%
2001	20	1/2	50%	66.15%
2001	21	0/1	0%	66.02%
2002	1	11/16	69%	66.10%
2002	2	3/16	19%	64.73%
2002	3	9/14	64%	64.72%
2002	4	9/14	64%	64.71%
2002	5	9/14	64%	64.70%
2002	6	7/14	50%	64.36%
2002	7	10/14	71%	64.52%
2002	8	7/14	50%	64.20%
2002	9	7/14	50%	63.89%
2002	10	8/14	57%	63.75%
2002	11	13/16	81%	64.16%
2002	12	8/16	50%	63.83%
2002	13	13/16	81%	64.23%
2002	14	12/16	75%	64.46%
2002	15	9/16	56%	64.29%
2002	16	11/16	69%	64.38%
2002	17	13/16	81%	64.73%
2002	18	2/4	50%	64.65%
2002	19	4/4	100%	64.83%
2002	20	1/2	50%	64.80%
2002	21	0/1	0%	64.71%
2003	1	11/16	69%	64.79%
2003	2	10/16	62%	64.75%
2003	3	11/14	79%	64.98%
2003	4	8/14	57%	64.85%
2003	5	9/14	64%	64.84%
2003	6	10/14	71%	64.95%
2003	7	8/14	57%	64.83%
2003	8	10/14	71%	64.93%
2003	9	6/14	43%	64.59%
2003	10	7/14	50%	64.37%
2003	11	12/16	75%	64.55%
2003	12	13/16	81%	64.83%
2003	13	9/16	56%	64.69%
2003	14	9/16	56%	64.55%
2003	15	14/16	88%	64.92%
2003	16	11/16	69%	64.98%
2003	17	11/16	69%	65.03%
2003	18	3/4	75%	65.07%
2003	19	2/4	50%	65.01%
2003	20	1/2	50%	64.99%
2003	21	1/1	100%	65.02%
2004	1	8/16	50%	64.79%
2004	2	9/16	56%	64.67%
2004	3	10/14	71%	64.75%
2004	4	8/14	57%	64.66%
2004	5	9/14	64%	64.65%
2004	6	10/14	71%	64.74%
2004	7	7/14	50%	64.56%
2004	8	8/14	57%	64.47%
2004	9	6/14	43%	64.21%
2004	10	8/14	57%	64.13%
2004	11	12/16	75%	64.27%
2004	12	10/16	62%	64.25%
2004	13	11/16	69%	64.31%
2004	14	13/16	81%	64.52%
2004	15	10/16	62%	64.50%
2004	16	12/16	75%	64.63%
2004	17	8/16	50%	64.45%
2004	18	1/4	25%	64.33%
2004	19	4/4	100%	64.44%
2004	20	1/2	50%	64.42%
2004	21	1/1	100%	64.44%
2005	1	10/16	62%	64.42%
2005	2	10/16	62%	64.40%
2005	3	8/14	57%	64.32%
2005	4	11/14	79%	64.47%
2005	5	7/14	50%	64.32%
2005	6	10/14	71%	64.39%
2005	7	8/14	57%	64.32%
2005	8	9/14	64%	64.32%
2005	9	8/14	57%	64.25%
2005	10	10/14	71%	64.32%
2005	11	10/16	62%	64.30%
2005	12	13/16	81%	64.48%
2005	13	13/16	81%	64.66%
2005	14	11/16	69%	64.70%
2005	15	11/16	69%	64.74%
2005	16	11/16	69%	64.79%
2005	17	10/16	62%	64.76%
2005	18	2/4	50%	64.72%
2005	19	2/4	50%	64.69%
2005	20	1/2	50%	64.67%
2005	21	1/1	100%	64.69%
2006	1	7/16	44%	64.48%
2006	2	12/16	75%	64.59%
2006	3	10/14	71%	64.64%
2006	4	10/14	71%	64.70%
2006	5	13/14	93%	64.94%
2006	6	7/13	54%	64.85%
2006	7	5/13	38%	64.65%
2006	8	8/14	57%	64.59%
2006	9	9/14	64%	64.59%
2006	10	9/16	56%	64.51%
2006	11	8/16	50%	64.38%
2006	12	12/16	75%	64.47%
2006	13	8/16	50%	64.34%
2006	14	6/16	38%	64.10%
2006	15	12/16	75%	64.20%
2006	16	8/16	50%	64.07%
2006	17	7/16	44%	63.90%
2006	18	3/4	75%	63.92%
2006	19	2/4	50%	63.89%
2006	20	2/2	100%	63.93%
2006	21	0/1	0%	63.90%
2007	1	8/16	50%	63.78%
2007	2	10/16	62%	63.77%
2007	3	14/16	88%	63.97%
2007	4	5/14	36%	63.76%
2007	5	10/14	71%	63.82%
2007	6	8/13	62%	63.80%
2007	7	11/14	79%	63.91%
2007	8	9/13	69%	63.94%
2007	9	7/14	50%	63.84%
2007	10	5/14	36%	63.65%
2007	11	12/16	75%	63.74%
2007	12	12/16	75%	63.82%
2007	13	9/16	56%	63.77%
2007	14	13/16	81%	63.90%
2007	15	9/16	56%	63.84%
2007	16	11/16	69%	63.88%
2007	17	9/16	56%	63.82%
2007	18	3/4	75%	63.84%
2007	19	2/4	50%	63.82%
2007	20	1/2	50%	63.80%
2007	21	0/1	0%	63.77%
2008	1	11/16	69%	63.81%
2008	2	9/15	60%	63.78%
2008	3	12/16	75%	63.87%
2008	4	8/13	62%	63.85%
2008	5	9/14	64%	63.86%
2008	6	9/14	64%	63.86%
2008	7	11/14	79%	63.95%
2008	8	12/14	86%	64.09%
2008	9	9/14	64%	64.09%
2008	10	10/14	71%	64.13%
2008	11	11/16	69%	64.17%
2008	12	11/16	69%	64.20%
2008	13	10/16	62%	64.19%
2008	14	13/16	81%	64.30%
2008	15	9/16	56%	64.25%
2008	16	7/16	44%	64.11%
2008	17	13/16	81%	64.23%
2008	18	0/4	0%	64.12%
2008	19	1/4	25%	64.05%
2008	20	1/2	50%	64.04%
2008	21	1/1	100%	64.06%
2009	1	12/16	75%	64.13%
2009	2	7/16	44%	63.99%
2009	3	12/16	75%	64.07%
2009	4	14/14	100%	64.27%
2009	5	12/14	86%	64.39%
2009	6	8/14	57%	64.35%
2009	7	10/13	77%	64.42%
2009	8	8/13	62%	64.40%
2009	9	8/13	62%	64.39%
2009	10	9/15	60%	64.36%
2009	11	11/16	69%	64.39%
2009	12	12/16	75%	64.46%
2009	13	11/16	69%	64.48%
2009	14	11/16	69%	64.51%
2009	15	10/16	62%	64.50%
2009	16	11/16	69%	64.52%
2009	17	9/16	56%	64.47%
2009	18	2/4	50%	64.45%
2009	19	3/4	75%	64.47%
2009	20	2/2	100%	64.49%
2009	21	0/1	0%	64.47%
2010	1	10/16	62%	64.46%
2010	2	10/16	62%	64.45%
2010	3	9/16	56%	64.40%
2010	4	9/14	64%	64.40%
2010	5	7/14	50%	64.32%
2010	6	10/14	71%	64.36%
2010	7	10/14	71%	64.39%
2010	8	9/13	69%	64.42%
2010	9	9/13	69%	64.44%
2010	10	9/14	64%	64.44%
2010	11	13/16	81%	64.53%
2010	12	9/16	56%	64.49%
2010	13	12/16	75%	64.55%
2010	14	12/16	75%	64.61%
2010	15	9/16	56%	64.56%
2010	16	9/16	56%	64.51%
2010	17	12/16	75%	64.57%
2010	18	1/4	25%	64.52%
2010	19	2/4	50%	64.50%
2010	20	1/2	50%	64.49%
2010	21	1/1	100%	64.50%
2011	1	10/16	62%	64.49%
2011	2	11/16	69%	64.51%
2011	3	12/16	75%	64.57%
2011	4	10/16	62%	64.56%
2011	5	9/13	69%	64.58%
2011	6	10/13	77%	64.63%
2011	7	6/13	46%	64.55%
2011	8	9/13	69%	64.57%
2011	9	7/14	50%	64.50%
2011	10	7/16	44%	64.40%
2011	11	12/14	86%	64.49%
2011	12	12/16	75%	64.55%
2011	13	12/16	75%	64.60%
2011	14	11/16	69%	64.62%
2011	15	8/16	50%	64.55%
2011	16	9/16	56%	64.50%
2011	17	11/16	69%	64.53%
2011	18	3/4	75%	64.54%
2011	19	2/4	50%	64.52%
2011	20	1/2	50%	64.51%
2011	21	0/1	0%	64.49%
2012	1	11/16	69%	64.51%
2012	2	12/16	75%	64.57%
2012	3	5/16	31%	64.40%
2012	4	10/15	67%	64.41%
2012	5	9/14	64%	64.41%
2012	6	5/14	36%	64.29%
2012	7	10/13	77%	64.34%
2012	8	9/14	64%	64.34%
2012	9	8/14	57%	64.31%
2012	10	8/14	57%	64.28%
2012	11	12/14	86%	64.37%
2012	12	9/16	56%	64.33%
2012	13	11/16	69%	64.35%
2012	14	9/16	56%	64.31%
2012	15	11/16	69%	64.33%
2012	16	11/16	69%	64.35%
2012	17	13/16	81%	64.43%
2012	18	2/4	50%	64.41%
2012	19	3/4	75%	64.43%
2012	20	0/2	0%	64.39%
2012	21	0/1	0%	64.37%
2013	1	8/16	50%	64.30%
2013	2	11/16	69%	64.32%
2013	3	10/16	62%	64.32%
2013	4	10/15	67%	64.33%
2013	5	7/14	50%	64.27%
2013	6	9/15	60%	64.25%
2013	7	8/15	53%	64.21%
2013	8	10/13	77%	64.25%
2013	9	7/13	54%	64.21%
2013	10	7/14	50%	64.16%
2013	11	9/15	60%	64.14%
2013	12	9/14	64%	64.14%
2013	13	10/16	62%	64.13%
2013	14	15/16	94%	64.26%
2013	15	9/16	56%	64.23%
2013	16	11/16	69%	64.25%
2013	17	13/16	81%	64.32%
2013	18	2/4	50%	64.31%
2013	19	3/4	75%	64.32%
2013	20	2/2	100%	64.34%
2013	21	0/1	0%	64.32%
2014	1	10/16	62%	64.31%
2014	2	8/16	50%	64.25%
2014	3	11/16	69%	64.27%
2014	4	7/13	54%	64.23%
2014	5	12/15	80%	64.30%
2014	6	10/15	67%	64.31%
2014	7	9/15	60%	64.29%
2014	8	7/15	47%	64.22%
2014	9	10/13	77%	64.26%
2014	10	9/13	69%	64.28%
2014	11	6/14	43%	64.20%
2014	12	12/15	80%	64.26%
2014	13	7/16	44%	64.18%
2014	14	11/16	69%	64.20%
2014	15	12/16	75%	64.24%
2014	16	8/16	50%	64.18%
2014	17	12/16	75%	64.23%
2014	18	3/4	75%	64.24%
2014	19	3/4	75%	64.25%
2014	20	2/2	100%	64.27%
2014	21	0/1	0%	64.25%
2015	1	10/16	62%	64.24%
2015	2	8/16	50%	64.19%
2015	3	10/16	62%	64.18%
2015	4	10/15	67%	64.19%
2015	5	12/14	86%	64.26%
2015	6	10/14	71%	64.29%
2015	7	10/14	71%	64.31%
2015	8	10/14	71%	64.34%
2015	9	7/13	54%	64.30%
2015	10	4/14	29%	64.18%
2015	11	7/14	50%	64.14%
2015	12	8/16	50%	64.08%
2015	13	8/16	50%	64.03%
2015	14	10/16	62%	64.02%
2015	15	12/16	75%	64.06%
2015	16	9/16	56%	64.03%
2015	17	11/16	69%	64.05%
2015	18	2/4	50%	64.04%
2015	19	4/4	100%	64.07%
2015	20	1/2	50%	64.07%
2015	21	0/1	0%	64.05%
2016	1	10/16	62%	64.04%
2016	2	11/16	69%	64.06%
2016	3	9/16	56%	64.03%
2016	4	8/15	53%	64.00%
2016	5	8/14	57%	63.97%
2016	6	10/15	67%	63.98%
2016	7	11/15	73%	64.02%
2016	8	8/13	62%	64.01%
2016	9	8/13	62%	64.00%
2016	10	8/14	57%	63.98%
2016	11	12/14	86%	64.05%
2016	12	12/16	75%	64.09%
2016	13	10/15	67%	64.10%
2016	14	13/16	81%	64.16%
2016	15	14/16	88%	64.24%
2016	16	11/16	69%	64.26%
2016	17	10/16	62%	64.25%
2016	18	3/4	75%	64.26%
2016	19	2/4	50%	64.25%
2016	20	2/2	100%	64.26%
2016	21	0/1	0%	64.25%
2017	1	9/15	60%	64.24%
2017	2	13/16	81%	64.30%
2017	3	8/16	50%	64.25%
2017	4	10/16	62%	64.24%
2017	5	10/14	71%	64.26%
2017	6	5/14	36%	64.17%
2017	7	10/15	67%	64.18%
2017	8	11/13	85%	64.24%
2017	9	7/13	54%	64.21%
2017	10	12/14	86%	64.28%
2017	11	8/14	57%	64.25%
2017	12	11/16	69%	64.27%
2017	13	14/16	88%	64.35%
2017	14	8/16	50%	64.30%
2017	15	9/16	56%	64.27%
2017	16	13/16	81%	64.33%
2017	17	8/16	50%	64.28%
2017	18	2/4	50%	64.27%
2017	19	3/4	75%	64.28%
2017	20	2/2	100%	64.29%
2017	21	0/1	0%	64.28%
2018	1	10/16	62%	64.27%
2018	2	10/16	62%	64.27%
2018	3	6/16	38%	64.18%
2018	4	10/15	67%	64.19%
2018	5	9/15	60%	64.17%
2018	6	11/15	73%	64.20%
2018	7	10/14	71%	64.22%
2018	8	11/14	79%	64.26%
2018	9	10/13	77%	64.30%
2018	10	7/14	50%	64.26%
2018	11	7/13	54%	64.23%
2018	12	11/15	73%	64.26%
2018	13	8/16	50%	64.21%
2018	14	8/16	50%	64.17%
2018	15	10/16	62%	64.16%
2018	16	10/16	62%	64.16%
2018	17	12/16	75%	64.19%
2018	18	3/4	75%	64.20%
2018	19	4/4	100%	64.23%
2018	20	0/2	0%	64.20%
2018	21	0/1	0%	64.19%
2019	1	11/16	69%	64.20%
2019	2	10/16	62%	64.20%
2019	3	11/16	69%	64.21%
2019	4	7/15	47%	64.16%
2019	5	7/15	47%	64.11%
2019	6	5/14	36%	64.03%
2019	7	10/14	71%	64.05%
2019	8	12/15	80%	64.10%
2019	9	12/14	86%	64.16%
2019	10	6/13	46%	64.11%
2019	11	10/14	71%	64.13%
2019	12	10/14	71%	64.15%
2019	13	8/16	50%	64.11%
2019	14	13/16	81%	64.16%
2019	15	9/16	56%	64.14%
2019	16	10/16	62%	64.13%
2019	17	8/16	50%	64.09%
2019	18	1/4	25%	64.06%
2019	19	3/4	75%	64.07%
2019	20	2/2	100%	64.08%
2019	21	1/1	100%	64.09%
2020	1	12/16	75%	64.12%
2020	2	13/16	81%	64.17%
2020	3	9/16	56%	64.15%
2020	4	7/15	47%	64.10%
2020	5	9/14	64%	64.10%
2020	6	8/14	57%	64.08%
2020	7	8/14	57%	64.06%
2020	8	9/14	64%	64.06%
2020	9	10/14	71%	64.08%
2020	10	11/14	79%	64.12%
2020	11	9/14	64%	64.12%
2020	12	11/16	69%	64.13%
2020	13	9/15	60%	64.12%
2020	14	9/16	56%	64.10%
2020	15	11/16	69%	64.11%
2020	16	11/16	69%	64.13%
2020	17	13/16	81%	64.18%
2020	18	4/6	67%	64.18%
2020	19	3/4	75%	64.19%
2020	20	1/2	50%	64.18%
2020	21	1/1	100%	64.19%
2021	1	6/16	38%	64.11%
2021	2	8/16	50%	64.07%
2021	3	10/16	62%	64.07%
2021	4	10/16	62%	64.06%
2021	5	12/16	75%	64.09%
2021	6	8/14	57%	64.08%
2021	7	9/13	69%	64.09%
2021	8	8/15	53%	64.06%
2021	9	7/14	50%	64.03%
2021	10	6/14	43%	63.97%
2021	11	9/15	60%	63.96%
2021	12	12/15	80%	64.00%
2021	13	7/14	50%	63.97%
2021	14	10/14	71%	63.99%
2021	15	10/16	62%	63.98%
2021	16	10/16	62%	63.98%
2021	17	12/16	75%	64.01%
2021	18	7/16	44%	63.96%
2021	19	4/6	67%	63.96%
2021	20	1/4	25%	63.93%
2021	21	1/2	50%	63.93%
2021	22	1/1	100%	63.93%
2022	1	8/16	50%	63.90%
2022	2	12/16	75%	63.93%
2022	3	9/16	56%	63.90%
2022	4	10/16	62%	63.90%
2022	5	9/16	56%	63.88%
2022	6	8/14	57%	63.86%
2022	7	9/14	64%	63.87%
2022	8	10/15	67%	63.87%
2022	9	9/13	69%	63.88%
2022	10	6/14	43%	63.84%
2022	11	10/14	71%	63.85%
2022	12	11/16	69%	63.87%
2022	13	11/15	73%	63.89%
2022	14	8/13	62%	63.88%
2022	15	10/16	62%	63.88%
2022	16	10/16	62%	63.88%
2022	17	12/15	80%	63.92%
2022	18	10/16	62%	63.91%
2022	19	4/6	67%	63.92%
2022	20	3/4	75%	63.92%
2022	21	2/2	100%	63.93%
2022	22	0/1	0%	63.92%
2023	1	6/16	38%	63.86%
2023	2	8/16	50%	63.82%
2023	3	12/16	75%	63.85%
2023	4	11/16	69%	63.86%
2023	5	9/14	64%	63.86%
2023	6	10/15	67%	63.87%
2023	7	4/13	31%	63.80%
2023	8	9/16	56%	63.78%
2023	9	11/14	79%	63.81%
2023	10	9/14	64%	63.81%
2023	11	11/14	79%	63.85%
2023	12	10/16	62%	63.84%
2023	13	8/13	62%	63.84%
2023	14	6/15	40%	63.78%
2023	15	10/16	62%	63.78%
2023	16	8/16	50%	63.75%
2023	17	12/16	75%	63.77%
2023	18	8/16	50%	63.74%
2023	19	5/6	83%	63.76%
2023	20	3/4	75%	63.76%
2023	21	1/2	50%	63.76%
2023	22	1/1	100%	63.77%
2024	1	10/16	62%	63.76%
2024	2	6/16	38%	63.70%
2024	3	10/16	62%	63.70%
2024	4	8/16	50%	63.66%
2024	5	7/14	50%	63.63%
2024	6	10/14	71%	63.65%
2024	7	12/15	80%	63.69%
2024	8	11/16	69%	63.70%
2024	9	11/15	73%	63.72%
2024	10	8/14	57%	63.71%
2024	11	9/14	64%	63.71%
2024	12	9/13	69%	63.72%
2024	13	11/16	69%	63.73%
2024	14	8/13	62%	63.73%
2024	15	11/16	69%	63.74%
2024	16	12/16	75%	63.77%
2024	17	13/16	81%	63.81%
2024	18	8/16	50%	63.77%
2024	19	4/6	67%	63.78%
2024	20	3/4	75%	63.78%
2024	21	2/2	100%	63.79%
2024	22	1/1	100%	63.80%
2025	1	10/16	62%	63.80%
2025	2	13/16	81%	63.84%
2025	3	11/16	69%	63.85%
2025	4	10/16	62%	63.85%
2025	5	6/14	43%	63.80%
2025	6	8/15	53%	63.78%
2025	7	11/15	73%	63.80%
2025	8	10/13	77%	63.83%
2025	9	7/14	50%	63.80%
2025	10	11/14	79%	63.83%
2025	11	13/15	87%	63.88%
2025	12	9/14	64%	63.88%
2025	13	9/16	56%	63.86%
2025	14	9/14	64%	63.86%
2025	15	10/16	62%	63.86%
2025	16	10/16	62%	63.86%
2025	17	11/16	69%	63.87%
2025	18	7/16	44%	63.82%
2025	19	3/6	50%	63.81%
2025	20	3/4	75%	63.82%
2025	21	2/2	100%	63.83%
2025	22	0/1	0%	63.82%

For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!