Home > , > Project TD Tuning β€” Version 19

Project TD Tuning β€” Version 19

V19 restructures rather than adds. We separated one composite weight into its component parts β€” the model now has 21 factors. One of the split components calibrated to a meaningful standalone signal; the other collapsed near zero, as expected. The number: 63.8% across 7,017 games, down a tenth from V18. On the out-of-sample window (2018–2025), it holds at 62.8% β€” matching V17 and V18. The floor didn’t move. Like V12 through V18, this run uses week-by-week summaries.
Weeks Run
551
Accuracy
64%
Avg Error
10.6 pts
SeasonWeekW/LAccuracyCumulative
2000112/1580%80.00%
200029/1560%70.00%
200039/1464%68.18%
200048/1457%65.52%
200059/1464%65.28%
200069/1464%65.12%
2000712/1486%68.00%
2000811/1479%69.30%
200097/1450%67.19%
20001010/1567%67.13%
2000118/1553%65.82%
2000128/1553%64.74%
20001310/1567%64.89%
20001411/1573%65.52%
20001511/1573%66.06%
2000168/1553%65.24%
20001711/1573%65.73%
2000183/475%65.87%
2000193/475%66.02%
2000201/250%65.89%
2000210/10%65.64%
200119/1560%65.33%
200126/1443%64.24%
200139/1464%64.24%
2001412/1580%64.98%
2001510/1471%65.26%
200162/1315%63.37%
2001711/1479%63.97%
200189/1464%63.98%
2001912/1580%64.60%
2001109/1560%64.43%
20011111/1573%64.75%
20011211/1573%65.05%
20011312/1580%65.55%
20011411/1573%65.80%
20011512/1580%66.25%
2001169/1560%66.06%
2001179/1560%65.88%
2001183/475%65.95%
2001193/475%66.02%
2001201/250%65.96%
2001210/10%65.83%
2002110/1662%65.73%
200223/1619%64.36%
200239/1464%64.36%
200249/1464%64.36%
200259/1464%64.36%
200267/1450%64.03%
2002710/1471%64.19%
200287/1450%63.88%
200297/1450%63.58%
2002108/1457%63.44%
20021113/1681%63.86%
2002128/1650%63.54%
20021313/1681%63.94%
20021412/1675%64.19%
2002159/1656%64.02%
20021610/1662%63.98%
20021713/1681%64.34%
2002182/450%64.27%
2002194/4100%64.45%
2002201/250%64.41%
2002210/10%64.33%
2003111/1669%64.42%
2003210/1662%64.38%
2003311/1479%64.62%
200348/1457%64.50%
200359/1464%64.49%
2003610/1471%64.60%
200378/1457%64.49%
2003810/1471%64.59%
200396/1443%64.26%
2003107/1450%64.05%
20031112/1675%64.23%
20031212/1675%64.41%
2003139/1656%64.28%
2003149/1656%64.15%
20031514/1688%64.52%
20031611/1669%64.59%
20031711/1669%64.65%
2003183/475%64.69%
2003192/450%64.63%
2003201/250%64.61%
2003211/1100%64.64%
200419/1656%64.51%
200429/1656%64.39%
2004310/1471%64.48%
200448/1457%64.39%
200459/1464%64.39%
2004610/1471%64.47%
200477/1450%64.30%
200488/1457%64.21%
200496/1443%63.96%
2004108/1457%63.88%
20041112/1675%64.03%
20041210/1662%64.01%
20041311/1669%64.07%
20041413/1681%64.29%
20041510/1662%64.26%
20041611/1669%64.32%
2004178/1650%64.14%
2004181/425%64.02%
2004194/4100%64.13%
2004201/250%64.11%
2004211/1100%64.14%
2005110/1662%64.12%
2005210/1662%64.10%
200538/1457%64.03%
2005411/1479%64.18%
200557/1450%64.03%
2005610/1471%64.11%
200578/1457%64.04%
200589/1464%64.04%
200598/1457%63.98%
20051010/1471%64.05%
20051110/1662%64.03%
20051213/1681%64.21%
20051313/1681%64.39%
20051411/1669%64.44%
20051511/1669%64.48%
20051611/1669%64.53%
20051710/1662%64.51%
2005182/450%64.47%
2005192/450%64.43%
2005201/250%64.42%
2005211/1100%64.44%
200617/1644%64.23%
2006212/1675%64.34%
2006310/1471%64.40%
2006410/1471%64.46%
2006513/1493%64.70%
200667/1354%64.61%
200675/1338%64.41%
200688/1457%64.35%
200699/1464%64.35%
2006109/1656%64.28%
2006118/1650%64.15%
20061212/1675%64.25%
2006138/1650%64.12%
2006146/1638%63.88%
20061512/1675%63.98%
2006168/1650%63.86%
2006177/1644%63.68%
2006183/475%63.71%
2006192/450%63.68%
2006202/2100%63.71%
2006210/10%63.68%
200718/1650%63.56%
2007210/1662%63.55%
2007314/1688%63.76%
200745/1436%63.55%
2007510/1471%63.61%
200768/1362%63.59%
2007711/1479%63.70%
200789/1369%63.74%
200797/1450%63.64%
2007105/1436%63.45%
20071112/1675%63.54%
20071212/1675%63.63%
2007139/1656%63.57%
20071413/1681%63.71%
20071510/1662%63.70%
20071611/1669%63.74%
2007179/1656%63.68%
2007183/475%63.70%
2007192/450%63.68%
2007201/250%63.66%
2007210/10%63.63%
2008110/1662%63.62%
200829/1560%63.60%
2008312/1675%63.68%
200848/1362%63.67%
200859/1464%63.67%
200869/1464%63.68%
2008711/1479%63.77%
2008812/1486%63.91%
200899/1464%63.91%
20081010/1471%63.96%
20081111/1669%63.99%
20081211/1669%64.02%
20081310/1662%64.01%
20081413/1681%64.13%
2008159/1656%64.08%
2008167/1644%63.94%
20081713/1681%64.06%
2008180/40%63.95%
2008191/425%63.88%
2008202/2100%63.91%
2008211/1100%63.93%
2009112/1675%64.00%
200927/1644%63.87%
2009312/1675%63.94%
2009414/14100%64.15%
2009512/1486%64.27%
200968/1457%64.23%
2009710/1377%64.30%
200988/1362%64.28%
200998/1362%64.27%
2009109/1560%64.24%
20091111/1669%64.27%
20091211/1669%64.30%
20091311/1669%64.33%
20091411/1669%64.35%
20091510/1662%64.34%
20091611/1669%64.37%
2009179/1656%64.32%
2009182/450%64.30%
2009193/475%64.32%
2009202/2100%64.34%
2009210/10%64.32%
2010110/1662%64.31%
2010210/1662%64.30%
201039/1656%64.25%
201049/1464%64.25%
201057/1450%64.18%
2010610/1471%64.21%
2010710/1471%64.25%
201089/1369%64.27%
201099/1369%64.30%
2010109/1464%64.30%
20101113/1681%64.39%
2010129/1656%64.35%
20101312/1675%64.41%
20101412/1675%64.47%
2010159/1656%64.42%
2010169/1656%64.37%
20101712/1675%64.43%
2010181/425%64.38%
2010192/450%64.36%
2010201/250%64.35%
2010211/1100%64.36%
2011110/1662%64.35%
2011212/1675%64.41%
2011312/1675%64.47%
2011410/1662%64.46%
201158/1362%64.44%
2011611/1385%64.53%
201176/1346%64.45%
201189/1369%64.47%
201197/1450%64.41%
2011108/1650%64.33%
20111112/1486%64.43%
20111212/1675%64.48%
20111312/1675%64.54%
20111411/1669%64.56%
2011158/1650%64.48%
2011169/1656%64.44%
20111711/1669%64.46%
2011183/475%64.48%
2011192/450%64.46%
2011201/250%64.45%
2011210/10%64.43%
2012111/1669%64.45%
2012212/1675%64.50%
201235/1631%64.34%
2012410/1567%64.35%
201259/1464%64.35%
201265/1436%64.23%
2012710/1377%64.28%
201289/1464%64.28%
201298/1457%64.25%
2012108/1457%64.22%
20121112/1486%64.31%
2012129/1656%64.27%
20121311/1669%64.29%
2012149/1656%64.25%
20121511/1669%64.27%
20121611/1669%64.29%
20121713/1681%64.37%
2012182/450%64.36%
2012193/475%64.37%
2012200/20%64.33%
2012210/10%64.31%
201318/1650%64.25%
2013211/1669%64.27%
2013310/1662%64.26%
2013410/1567%64.27%
201357/1450%64.21%
201369/1560%64.20%
201378/1553%64.15%
2013810/1377%64.20%
201397/1354%64.16%
2013107/1450%64.10%
2013119/1560%64.09%
2013129/1464%64.09%
20131310/1662%64.08%
20131415/1694%64.21%
2013159/1656%64.18%
20131610/1662%64.17%
20131713/1681%64.24%
2013182/450%64.23%
2013193/475%64.24%
2013202/2100%64.26%
2013210/10%64.24%
201419/1656%64.21%
201427/1644%64.12%
2014311/1669%64.14%
201447/1354%64.10%
2014512/1580%64.17%
2014610/1567%64.18%
201479/1560%64.16%
201488/1553%64.12%
2014910/1377%64.16%
2014109/1369%64.18%
2014116/1443%64.10%
20141212/1580%64.16%
2014138/1650%64.10%
20141411/1669%64.12%
20141512/1675%64.17%
2014168/1650%64.11%
20141712/1675%64.15%
2014183/475%64.16%
2014193/475%64.17%
2014202/2100%64.19%
2014210/10%64.18%
2015112/1675%64.22%
201528/1650%64.16%
2015310/1662%64.16%
201549/1560%64.14%
2015512/1486%64.22%
2015610/1471%64.24%
2015710/1471%64.26%
2015810/1471%64.29%
201597/1354%64.26%
2015105/1436%64.16%
2015117/1450%64.11%
2015128/1650%64.06%
2015138/1650%64.00%
20151410/1662%64.00%
20151512/1675%64.04%
2015169/1656%64.01%
20151711/1669%64.03%
2015182/450%64.02%
2015194/4100%64.05%
2015201/250%64.04%
2015210/10%64.03%
201619/1656%64.00%
2016211/1669%64.02%
2016310/1662%64.01%
201648/1553%63.97%
201658/1457%63.95%
2016610/1567%63.96%
2016711/1573%63.99%
201688/1362%63.99%
201698/1362%63.98%
2016108/1457%63.96%
20161112/1486%64.03%
20161212/1675%64.06%
20161310/1567%64.07%
20161413/1681%64.14%
20161514/1688%64.22%
20161611/1669%64.23%
20161710/1662%64.23%
2016183/475%64.24%
2016192/450%64.23%
2016202/2100%64.24%
2016210/10%64.23%
201718/1553%64.19%
2017213/1681%64.25%
201738/1650%64.20%
2017410/1662%64.20%
2017510/1471%64.22%
201765/1436%64.13%
2017710/1567%64.14%
2017811/1385%64.20%
201798/1362%64.19%
20171013/1493%64.28%
2017118/1457%64.25%
20171211/1669%64.27%
20171314/1688%64.35%
2017148/1650%64.30%
2017159/1656%64.27%
20171613/1681%64.33%
2017178/1650%64.28%
2017182/450%64.27%
2017193/475%64.28%
2017202/2100%64.29%
2017210/10%64.28%
2018110/1662%64.27%
2018210/1662%64.27%
201836/1638%64.18%
2018410/1567%64.19%
201859/1560%64.17%
2018611/1573%64.20%
2018710/1471%64.22%
2018811/1479%64.26%
2018910/1377%64.30%
2018107/1450%64.26%
2018117/1354%64.23%
20181211/1573%64.26%
2018138/1650%64.21%
2018148/1650%64.17%
20181510/1662%64.16%
20181610/1662%64.16%
20181712/1675%64.19%
2018183/475%64.20%
2018194/4100%64.23%
2018200/20%64.20%
2018210/10%64.19%
2019111/1669%64.20%
201928/1650%64.16%
2019311/1669%64.17%
201947/1547%64.12%
201957/1547%64.07%
201965/1436%63.99%
201979/1464%63.99%
2019812/1580%64.04%
2019912/1486%64.10%
2019106/1346%64.05%
20191110/1471%64.07%
20191210/1471%64.09%
2019138/1650%64.05%
20191411/1669%64.06%
2019159/1656%64.04%
20191610/1662%64.04%
2019178/1650%63.99%
2019181/425%63.96%
2019193/475%63.97%
2019202/2100%63.99%
2019211/1100%63.99%
2020112/1675%64.03%
2020213/1681%64.08%
202039/1656%64.05%
202047/1547%64.01%
202059/1464%64.01%
202068/1457%63.99%
202078/1457%63.97%
202089/1464%63.97%
2020910/1471%63.99%
20201011/1479%64.03%
2020119/1464%64.03%
20201211/1669%64.04%
20201310/1567%64.05%
20201410/1662%64.05%
20201511/1669%64.06%
20201610/1662%64.05%
20201713/1681%64.10%
2020184/667%64.11%
2020193/475%64.11%
2020201/250%64.11%
2020211/1100%64.12%
202115/1631%64.02%
202128/1650%63.98%
2021310/1662%63.98%
2021410/1662%63.97%
2021512/1675%64.00%
202169/1464%64.01%
202179/1369%64.02%
202188/1553%63.99%
202197/1450%63.96%
2021106/1443%63.90%
2021119/1560%63.89%
20211212/1580%63.94%
2021137/1450%63.90%
20211410/1471%63.92%
20211510/1662%63.92%
20211610/1662%63.91%
20211712/1675%63.94%
2021187/1644%63.89%
2021194/667%63.89%
2021201/425%63.86%
2021211/250%63.86%
2021221/1100%63.87%
202218/1650%63.83%
2022212/1675%63.86%
202239/1656%63.84%
2022410/1662%63.83%
202259/1656%63.81%
202268/1457%63.80%
202279/1464%63.80%
2022811/1573%63.82%
202299/1369%63.83%
2022106/1443%63.79%
20221110/1471%63.80%
20221211/1669%63.82%
20221311/1573%63.84%
2022148/1362%63.84%
20221510/1662%63.83%
20221611/1669%63.84%
20221712/1580%63.88%
20221810/1662%63.88%
2022194/667%63.88%
2022203/475%63.89%
2022212/2100%63.90%
2022220/10%63.89%
202316/1638%63.82%
202328/1650%63.79%
2023312/1675%63.82%
2023411/1669%63.83%
202359/1464%63.83%
2023610/1567%63.84%
202374/1331%63.77%
202389/1656%63.75%
2023911/1479%63.78%
2023109/1464%63.78%
20231110/1471%63.80%
20231210/1662%63.80%
2023138/1362%63.79%
2023146/1540%63.74%
20231510/1662%63.73%
2023168/1650%63.70%
20231712/1675%63.73%
2023188/1650%63.69%
2023195/683%63.71%
2023203/475%63.72%
2023211/250%63.71%
2023221/1100%63.72%
2024111/1669%63.73%
202426/1638%63.67%
2024310/1662%63.66%
202449/1656%63.65%
202457/1450%63.62%
2024610/1471%63.63%
2024712/1580%63.67%
2024811/1669%63.68%
2024911/1573%63.71%
2024108/1457%63.69%
2024119/1464%63.69%
2024129/1369%63.70%
20241311/1669%63.72%
2024148/1362%63.71%
20241511/1669%63.72%
20241612/1675%63.75%
20241713/1681%63.79%
2024188/1650%63.76%
2024194/667%63.76%
2024203/475%63.77%
2024212/2100%63.78%
2024221/1100%63.78%
2025110/1662%63.78%
2025213/1681%63.82%
2025311/1669%63.83%
2025410/1662%63.83%
202556/1443%63.79%
202568/1553%63.77%
2025711/1573%63.79%
2025810/1377%63.81%
202598/1457%63.80%
20251011/1479%63.83%
20251113/1587%63.88%
2025129/1464%63.88%
2025139/1656%63.86%
2025149/1464%63.86%
20251510/1662%63.86%
20251610/1662%63.86%
20251711/1669%63.87%
2025187/1644%63.82%
2025193/650%63.81%
2025203/475%63.82%
2025212/2100%63.83%
2025220/10%63.82%

For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!