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May 13, 2026

Let’s talk about betting.

When I was growing up, making bets with friends was a simple matter - I’ll put tenbucks, a case of beer, some embarrassing stunt, on my team beating your team. Nolines, no points, no spreads, no middlemen. That time is gone, my friends. Back in 2003, a co-worker of mine was so sure that hisdeeply beloved Raiders would trounce the Buccaneers in the first all=pirate Super Bowlthat he offered to bet twenty dollars on the outcome. I said I’d take him up on it, and heasked me what kind of points I’d give him. No points, I said; I’m not a bookie and this isa bet between men. As it turned out, points would have been irrelevant, but I stillremember being outraged that he would try that kind of hedging - if he really had faith inhis team, why would he need that kind of insurance? I’m pretty sure that was the lasttime I made a bet like that - clean, simple, and - most importantly - totally aboveboard. Here’s the deal now. If you’re betting with anyone but your best buddies on the couch before the game,you’re talking about being subject to the lines from professional organizations thatfunction a lot like insurance companies - they’re not betting against you personally, butthey are betting that you haven’t done the research to give you the edge you need tocome out ahead. If you’re betting with the standard NFL lines in Las Vegas (or anywhere), the keynumbers are brutally simple. Most NFL spread bets are priced at -110 odds: this meansthat you risk $110 to win $100. Consistently winning at sports betting - especially in NFL markets - comes down to oneunforgiving number: 52.4%. That’s the break-even threshold when betting standard -110odds, and it represents an invisible but ironclad line between long-term…

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