These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.
The ones we see differently
One outright disagreement this week, and it is PHI at CHI.
Outright splits with the market. We are taking the other side:
- PHI @ CHI — the market likes PHI by 3.5. We have CHI by 3.4.
These are the calls worth judging us on. Check back Sunday night.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB Final: ATL by 21 (we said 3.5) | GB | by 3.5 | GB by 4.5 |
| LAC @ BUF Final: BUF by 8 (we said 12.1) | BUF | by 12.1 | BUF by 7 |
| CAR @ CLE Final: CLE by 3 (we said 0.4) | CLE | by 0.4 | CAR by 2.5 |
| NYJ @ DET Final: DET by 7 (we said 8.9) | DET | by 8.9 | DET by 7 |
| HOU @ IND Final: IND by 2 (we said 3.7) | HOU | by 3.7 | HOU by 1.5 |
| NE @ JAX Final: JAX by 29 (we said 4.8) | JAX | by 4.8 | JAX by 3 |
| KC @ MIA Final: KC by 14 (we said 2.2) | MIA | by 2.2 | KC by 10 |
| TEN @ NYG Final: NYG by 5 (we said 5.4) | NYG | by 5.4 | NYG by 2.5 |
| CIN @ PIT Final: PIT by 3 (we said 0.7) | PIT | by 0.7 | CIN by 3.5 |
| SEA @ WAS Final: WAS by 2 (we said 7.0) | SEA | by 7.0 | SEA by 8.5 |
| ARI @ SF Final: SF by 6 (we said 10.8) | SF | by 10.8 | SF by 7.5 |
| MIN @ TB Final: MIN by 7 (we said 2.4) | MIN | by 2.4 | MIN by 1.5 |
| BAL @ DAL Final: BAL by 3 (we said 0.3) | BAL | by 0.3 | BAL by 3 |
| LV @ NO Final: LV by 8 (we said 7.7) | NO | by 7.7 | NO by 3.5 |
| LA @ DEN Final: DEN by 4 (we said 0.1) | DEN | by 0.1 | DEN by 1.5 |
| PHI @ CHI | CHI | by 3.4 | PHI by 3.5 |
What changed this week
Our numbers update daily. Every time a call moved, it is logged here with the time we moved it.
Wed 23 Sep, 12:00 PM PDT
- BAL @ DAL — we still have BAL by 0.3. The market moved to BAL by 3.5, leaving us 3.2 points apart.
Sun 27 Sep, 12:00 PM PDT
- ARI @ SF — we still have SF by 10.8. The market moved to SF by 7.5, leaving us 3.3 points apart.
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!