These are our model’s picks for the week, with the betting market’s line alongside for comparison. Where we differ from the market, that difference is the whole opinion — and the market is very good. Treat a small disagreement as noise.
Our calls against the grain
One outright disagreement this week, and it is BUF at LA.
Straight disagreements — the market favours one side, our model takes the other:
- BUF @ LA — the market likes LA by 3.5. We have BUF by 0.4.
A sportsbook has to worry about balancing its book. We only have to be right, so we say what the numbers say.
Every game this week
| Game | Our pick | Predicted margin | Market line |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL Final: TB by 8 (we said 10.2) | DAL | by 10.2 | DAL by 9.5 |
| PHI @ JAX Final: JAX by 2 (we said 9.2) | JAX | by 9.2 | JAX by 7.5 |
| CHI @ GB Final: GB by 24 (we said 1.9) | CHI | by 1.9 | CHI by 1.5 |
| CIN @ MIA Final: CIN by 7 (we said 3.5) | CIN | by 3.5 | CIN by 7 |
| LV @ NE Final: NE by 28 (we said 7.5) | NE | by 7.5 | NE by 3.5 |
| MIN @ NO Final: MIN by 10 (we said 0.1) | NO | by 0.1 | MIN by 2.5 |
| CLE @ NYJ Final: NYJ by 5 (we said 4.7) | CLE | by 4.7 | NYJ by 2.5 |
| IND @ PIT Final: PIT by 12 (we said 6.1) | PIT | by 6.1 | PIT by 3 |
| HOU @ TEN Final: HOU by 23 (we said 3.7) | HOU | by 3.7 | HOU by 6.5 |
| NYG @ WAS Final: tie — no result | NYG | by 5.4 | WAS by 3.5 |
| DEN @ LAC Final: DEN by 6 (we said 3.0) | DEN | by 3.0 | DEN by 3.5 |
| DET @ ARI Final: DET by 24 (we said 3.2) | DET | by 3.2 | DET by 5.5 |
| SF @ SEA Final: SF by 3 (we said 2.6) | SEA | by 2.6 | SEA by 3 |
| BAL @ ATL Final: BAL by 7 (we said 1.9) | ATL | by 1.9 | ATL by 3.5 |
| BUF @ LA | BUF | by 0.4 | LA by 3.5 |
What changed this week
Our numbers update daily. Every time a call moved, it is logged here with the time we moved it.
Wed 7 Oct, 12:00 PM PDT
- MIN @ NO — we still have NO by 0.1. The market moved to MIN by 1.5, leaving us 1.6 points apart.
- BAL @ ATL — we still have BAL by 2.0. The market moved to ATL by 3.5, leaving us 5.5 points apart.
Thu 8 Oct, 12:00 PM PDT
- TB @ DAL — DAL by 6.5 is now DAL by 10.2.
Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 PM PDT
- BAL @ ATL — BAL by 2.0 is now ATL by 1.9.
- PHI @ JAX — JAX by 7.5 is now JAX by 9.2.
- CLE @ NYJ — CLE by 2.9 is now CLE by 4.7.
- NYG @ WAS — NYG by 1.0 is now NYG by 5.4.
For Science and the love of the game!!! What you do with this data is up to you!!!